Downswing or bad play?

    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      It seems like everytime I log onto pokerstars to watch the regulars at NL25/50, there's always a couple of people with a deep stack. Everytime I see these people they have a deep stack, maybe 3/4 buy in's or so.

      So why is it that they don't seem to hit a real downswing but we do? They have consistent play, and a lot of poker knowledge; so are downswings caused by bad play, or "cold deck" ?
  • 2 replies
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Hi SheepMoose,

      Let's make a rational definition of the downswing: a downswing is a chance pileup of events or things that deviate markedly from the assumed expected value, so that negative results are achieved over an uncertain time span. A weak point of this definition is the expected value, since this is unknown. This value is contaminated by leaks and other unknown factors, which increase the variance and can move the expected value.

      You cannot stop a downswing. We cannot influence the factors that cause the downswing, but they can influence us. Learning effects as described are strengthened, and they decrease our expected value further. We must work on that.

      We are under particular psychological strain during a downswing. Our game behaviour changes as does our learning behaviour. We have a certain emotion that motivates us to make changes. We want to correct our trajectory. But if I increase my learning in just this situation, I have two problems. First, I'm not playing to my full potential. Second, the motivation to continue working on my self during the next upswing will diminish. For this reason, we must go about this situation with a plan.

      I copied this information from this article "Downswing - A psychological consideration". If you want to learn more about the psychological effect of a downswing and work on improving yourself during these periods I reccomend you reading it.

      Regards,
      Sarah
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by SheepMoose
      It seems like everytime I log onto pokerstars to watch the regulars at NL25/50, there's always a couple of people with a deep stack. Everytime I see these people they have a deep stack, maybe 3/4 buy in's or so.

      So why is it that they don't seem to hit a real downswing but we do? They have consistent play, and a lot of poker knowledge; so are downswings caused by bad play, or "cold deck" ?
      They do hit downswings, everyone does. A downswing requires more than a stack or two to get out of. Those regulars are beating the limit and will soon move on to greener pastures.

      btw, sometimes Im deep on the tables but losing for the session or day.