Looking for some assessments...

    • FirestormX
      FirestormX
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 54
      I've just experienced what I would consider a pretty incredible downsing. My question, is whether I should be consistently expecting swings of this magnitude, or whether this is a 1 off string of really bad luck.

      General info:

      Limits: NL25 on Stars
      Strategy: SSS

      Below I've posted a table obtained from Poker EV.

      It shows my expected showdown winnings (Sklansky bucks), My actual showdown winnings and my total winnings for my most recent 6k hand session (spread between 2 days).

      From my understanding, looking at this graph, my total showdown winnings should be $160 higher. Considering as my bankroll started at $225 and is now at $125, that means I should have a bankroll of $285.

      Is this normal varience? Really bad variance? Am I just whining?

      Thanks,

  • 5 replies
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      20BI down is a very bad swing. If it's not due to bad play I don't think you should expect swings like this too often so cheer up and keep the good play.
      ps: I am also swinging around $180-220 for the last 8k hands and I know it sucks but that's just the game.
    • rickydaprince
      rickydaprince
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.12.2008 Posts: 397
      I think just looking at the EV graph can be deceiving because I'm assuming it doesn't account for your opponent's ranges individually. Anyway, post up some interesting hands and some of the judges might be able to spot a leak in your game.
    • FirestormX
      FirestormX
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 54
      I don't know what you mean Ricky.

      This graph simply maps based on where I go all in the value I should receive, which is based on the exact hand that my opponent has, vs what I actually receive, which in this case was significantly less.

      From what I read elsewhere a 32 BI difference in Expected value and actual winnings (and from what you said mish) is a pretty huge swing. Fortunatly I'm appropriately staked and have read the articles on BR management.

      Key seems to be take a little break if i need it (keep from allowing my DS to become a tilted DS), and get back in the game.

      Thanks all.
    • ShinShya
      ShinShya
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2009 Posts: 90
      Yea, this is a gross downswing. You appears you are getting a lot of your hands in good, but just getting unlucky. I have recently went through a 21Bi downswing, but have made my way back to +14BIs up, just this month. 20+ Bi swing is a lot, that's not normal day to day variance.
    • FirestormX
      FirestormX
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 54
      I don't even know how to deal with this. It simply won't stop.

      I'm now about 20BI below where I started, but I'm 44BI below expectation.

      My soul burns a little bit.