After how many SNGs should we evaluate ROI / earnings?

    • Rauchg
      Rauchg
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2009 Posts: 23
      Hi everyone,

      I think this is quite a recurring topic. Many times people want to find out where they are in terms of success with their play, and whether to keep doing what they're doing or focus on making changes... but they're told they haven't played long enough to be analyzing some stats.

      My question is directed to the more experienced players. At what point do you think a player should worry about his/her ROI, profit, etc ?

      Games Played Av. Profit Av. Stake Av. ROI Total Profit Form
      378 $0 $1 22% $158 -

      Should this interest me at this point?
  • 10 replies
    • Grimzor
      Grimzor
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 421
      Funny how ppl that ask this always show their ROI as if that would matter in this question... and what a coincidence that ROI is always pretty good. There are easier ways to brag btw :)

      About question - not enough. 380 games are good indicator but not enough to tell exact roi. For example i was beating 20,80$ DONs with 13% ROI over 200+ games. Yesterday a 15 BI downer came (over 100 games) and my ROI is only 6-7% now. I would say like 2k games could be somewhat enough to tell acurate ROI, but who knows - so far i have not played that much and maybe my thoughts will change.
    • LuborC
      LuborC
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2008 Posts: 1,243
      My 2009 graph - looking for opinion of experienced SNG players..

      Look at my graph. You will see that the ROI after 1700 games was totally different from the one after 3400 games. You can never really be sure what your true ROI is unless you played infinite number of games. If you have 22% ROI after those 350 games there is a good chance your true ROI will be somewhere in the +numbers.
    • Rauchg
      Rauchg
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2009 Posts: 23
      Originally posted by Grimzor
      Funny how ppl that ask this always show their ROI as if that would matter in this question... and what a coincidence that ROI is always pretty good. There are easier ways to brag btw :)
      In all honesty, I didn't know what qualifies as good ROI. And I ask about mine particularly because I want to start to analyze my stats :) .
    • LuborC
      LuborC
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2008 Posts: 1,243
      If there is 20% rake where you play then 22% is impossibly good.
    • NickParkes
      NickParkes
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.07.2008 Posts: 1,526
      I'm beginning to wonder if it's worth being concerned with what your ROI actually is... It is bound to fluctuate... personally I have run 800-900 games at 20%, then I went down quite a bit due to connection problems, then I have had a long breakeven streak, and I have been concerned with my ROI... ATM I think sharkscope has me at 5% which I don't feel is a reflection of my actual game... so I don't care anymore... my focus is to play my A game, develop my skills, gain experience and move up the limits... no matter how long it takes... So any positive ROI is good... the higher the better, but poker is a super marathon so the aim is to keep moving forward :f_grin:
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      'bout 1K sng's to give you a first impression, I'd say 5+K for a decent ROI estimate.

      Those numbers should be lower on the lowest buy-in levels though, since variance is smaller :)
    • fun101rockets
      fun101rockets
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,162
      i would say 2000 to start evaluating stats. You can have a losing 300SnGs series but still be a winning player
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      more is better... depends of how many tables do you play... if you play 100sng per month i say it is nice to have 1000sng sample size ... if you play like 1000-2000sng per month ... you should have like 5k sample size ... peace

      yes im wrong so what ... it also depends of if you play speed or normal ... higher or low limits ...

      but at the end having 2500sng per 3-4 months is nice to see results
    • DevilChess
      DevilChess
      Global
      Joined: 21.03.2009 Posts: 488
      Hello,
      What you want to know is your AVERAGE ROI%, this can be calculated with basic probability functions in excell, depending on the size of your sample (number of tournaments) you can use diverse functions, such as: "t-student for small samples or general-normalization-probability function for samples 30 or greater"

      What you also want to know is what is the LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE of your average ROI% according to your sample size.

      Search this terms:
      "Level of confidence"
      "Interval of confidence"

      With basic probability & statistics you can obtain your OPTIMUM bankroll management, as a matter of fact, the % of your bankroll that you should play changes according to your ROI%, ITM%, tournament field-size(risk) and its pay-out structure(return on investment).

      There's also an already made function for calculating the optimum BR management that is based on your ROI% & ITM% called: "Kelly Criterion", but this isn't very useful, since very often it recommends higher BR% than you usually play, and in higher BR% entry tournaments, you don't know your ITM% and ROI%, UNLESS you are certain the level of play of your current stakes is the same at the stakes recommended by the Kelly-Criterion factor.
    • Rauchg
      Rauchg
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2009 Posts: 23
      That's very interesting. Thanks for the info @DevilChess