[NL2-NL10] SSS AJo do you call the reraise post flop with OESD?

    • mjkirwan1980
      mjkirwan1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2008 Posts: 50
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.5/$1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $117.30
      MP1:
      $29.60
      MP2:
      $110.65
      MP3:
      $40.95
      CO:
      $101.40
      BU:
      $140.30
      SB:
      $100.00
      BB:
      $74.50
      UTG1(Hero):
      $23.00

      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with A, J.
      Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, MP3 calls $4.00, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($9.50) 9, Q, T (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, MP3 raises to $36.95(All-In)
      , Hero calls $13.00(All-In).

      Turn: ($65.45) 4 (2 players)


      River: ($65.45) 2 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $65.45.

      Right so here is the first hand I have ever posted on Poker Strategy, I'm thinking its going to be the first of many as I'm unlikely to get worse by posting hands :)

      Anyways...Im playing SSS and other than the obvious mistake of me playing AJo from early position my main question is after C-betting is it correct to call the All in bet?
  • 12 replies
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      what's the final outcome? what hand did your opponent have?
    • mjkirwan1980
      mjkirwan1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2008 Posts: 50
      KQ offsuit.

      Cant remember too much about his stats but there was nothing out of the odinary VPIP 20/PR 10 ish.

      Just really wanted to know if this should be an instant fold or not?
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Out of interest why did you raise AJo in early? Get your position wrong or something?

      I think of this as a pretty damn marginal spot. I give myself maybe 2 outs for the A and 1 for the J in the case that Villain is drawing also and 5 to 8 outs for the OESD. I think I make the Marginal Call unless i know villain as being extraordinarily passive. I think we need 9 outs to call.

      Imo hands likely in an unknown Villains range that he can make this move with; (AK), AQ, (AJ), KQ, KJ, (KT), (QJ), TT, 99 and some sort of Flushdraw.

      He may have also played tricky and tried to trap a monster (QQ+) or called Loose and hit a different two-pair, straight or Flushdraw.
    • mjkirwan1980
      mjkirwan1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2008 Posts: 50
      Agreed I shouldn't have played AJo from early position. I think I had been sat at the table for about 100 hands or so playing VPIP 2/PR 2. It had been the best hand I had seen and although not in the starting hand requirements I figured a preflop raise from early position may get some respect. The only player to call the hand was the only player I had less than 2000 sample hands on everyone else folded.

      In hindsight it should have been a fold pf and i was a bit tilty from running cold however my question about the AI call or fold holds true if i had made the raise on the button and then been flat called from one of the blinds....

      If this were the case....would you have folded after your C-bet or made that marginal call. I agree on your predicted hand range....if that were the case would you still have called?
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      To be Honest I'd probably give myself 8 or 9 outs on average and call but it just feels like thats a minus EV decision somehow. I will therefore get out the Equilator, I added a couple of spaded FD's that he might call with preflop, but its still a pretty tight range, you might be able to add a couple of SC's etc....

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 30.248 % 22.406 % 15.683 % 61.910 % AdJc
      Player 2: 69.752 % 61.910 % 15.683 % 22.406 % TT-99, AQs-AJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo


      So according to that our Equity is 30.2% Lets say
      Final Pot is $44 so our share is; 0.302 x $44 = $13.288.

      So we can actually call! we make a $0.29 for a call! Just goes to show how marginal the situation is that it comes out that close. It certainly Advertises for a muck to avoid Variance pre.
    • mjkirwan1980
      mjkirwan1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2008 Posts: 50
      Thanks DaPhunk.....

      Mental note....I'll get into less difficulties just folding this hand in early position even with tight image, then i'll have easier decisions post flop :)
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      fold pre definitely go broke on this flop.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Da Phunk, your equity calculation is incorrect. The pot is $33 not $44 and it is $13 to call, thus demanding an equity of 39.4% to be +EV.

      As it stands following the range you provided, it becomes a clear fold and not a marginal call.

      Having said that though I think you have about 8-9 outs (4 Eights, 4 Kings and maybe 2-3 aces, discount spades) so you're getting marginal calling odds here at 2.5:1.
    • mjkirwan1980
      mjkirwan1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.05.2008 Posts: 50
      hmmm ysessa says go broke on the flop...mbbl says otherwise.

      any more advice?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Let me clarify myself.

      If you were to use daphunk's analysis it would be a fold for me as your AJ does not stand up to his range.

      However with 8-9 outs on the flop it is +EV to call with 2.5:1 odds. Although I don't think it would be a big mistake to fold here either.

      Cheers
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I was calculating our equity share of final Pot, not the Pot on the flop which doesn't include our remaining stack mbml.

      If we call we get a 30.2% share of a $44 pot not a 30.2% share of a $33 pot. In short, thanks for your concern but i'm not wrong.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      you need something like 7 outs 13/45,2= 28,8% equity with an oesd 1 overcard and sometimes the best hand against a fdraw this should be an easy call.