[NL20-NL50] NL25 QQ OESD flop

    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $24.95
      MP3:
      $5.00
      CO:
      $25.32
      BU(Hero):
      $43.81
      SB:
      $35.62
      BB:
      $32.66
      MP1:
      $5.00

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, Q.
      MP1 raises to $1, MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00, CO folds, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, MP1 calls $4.00(All-In), MP2 calls $4.00, MP3 calls $4.00(All-In).

      Flop: ($20.35) K, T, J (4 players)
      MP2 bets $6.75, Hero raises to $38.81(All-In), MP2 calls $13.20(All-In).

      Turn: ($79.11) A (4 players)

      River: ($79.11) 9 (4 players)

      Final Pot: $79.11.

      It's really hard to put MP2 on a range. I'd actually go 22-TT maybe JJ, AK and KQ. If I think he is capable of playing AA or KK that way, I don't have the necessary equity for my OESD anymore, and the lower pairs are more improbable than most other hands, so should this be a fold on the flop?
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      I would give myself about 9 outs here as average value. The pot being 20$ already and MP2 having 20 left you need only 33% equity and I think you have it vs his range which I`m guessing looks something like

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 36.460 % 31.749 % 9.421 % 58.829 % QsQh
      Player 2: 63.540 % 58.829 % 9.421 % 31.749 % KK+, JJ-99, AQs+, KQs, QJs, Qc2c, 6c5c, AQo+, KQo, QJo
    • awishformore
      awishformore
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2007 Posts: 922
      Well, I don't think his range is this loose here. Also, I have a read about him now (which I didn't have previously, I've seen him do it frequently now, though): he cold-calls short-stack raises with QQ+. Taking that into consideration, I think the equity would be somewhat around 25% and it's a fold. Still, I guess a shove was OK in order to get that read.
    • Talic
      Talic
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2008 Posts: 1,851
      well Im def. not folding :)

      I prefer shove on flop but call is very ok also and go broke on A or 9