help!!!!

    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i moved to full tilt poker from party poker a couple of weeks ago to clear the signup bonus and benefit from rakeback. i was a soild winning player on NL50 on party poker. since i started on full tilt i have been pretty much shafted as the EV of my hands delt has been horrifically negative.
      anyway ill give full tilt until sunday to give me a fair chance to win as thats all i want! just a fair chance!
      in the graph attached the bottom line is expected EV and other line is winnings. It seems that even tho my expected EV has been horiffically negative, due to good play ive been able to minimise my losses.

  • 17 replies
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Dude, you've lost 2,4 BI in 15k hands. That's not even a real downswing. I mean - Jesus...

      What's your point with this post?

      You're not on a downswing, you've only lost 2,4 BI and you're already bitching about it? People swing with like 10-12 BI per session...
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i think u miss my point... i dont seem to have a fair chance to win.
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Hi Ishindar,

      Poker is a game of patience, the cards may not seem to fall your way at the moment but they will eventually. Its good that you are minimising your losses, but if you feel like you are starting to tilt then take a break. I hope your luck turns around soon.

      Regards,
      Sarah
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      i think u miss my point... i dont seem to have a fair chance to win.
      Please don't say FullTilt is fucked up and is set upon raping you. How do you calculate your fair chance to win to come and state this?

      As the girl above me said - that's a game of patience. I mean... There are tons of graphs with 30k hands and where people are break even. Or where the usually +EV moves bring only -$.

      And also it might be that FullTilt is much harder than the previous room you played.


      As someone wise said: hope for the best, prepare for the worst! I can only wish you the best of luck! After all - it can't last forever. And you can always go back to PartyPoker after you clear the bonus.
    • slikec
      slikec
      Global
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 1,155
      Lol you are bitching here :D

      You are only -125$ when you should be at least 3 times that with -EV at -600$

      You were luckbox!
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      right, i might be bitching but it does get frustrating after 3 weeks of almost all your hands getting dominated on a new site where u dont really know what to expect :)

      thks for the kind words guys :P
    • Diedobal
      Diedobal
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 558
      Originally posted by Ishindar

      in the graph attached the bottom line is expected EV and other line is winnings. It seems that even tho my expected EV has been horiffically negative, due to good play ive been able to minimise my losses.
      Hey Ishy, found you :D

      Think you misinterpret the lines. The EV line is your winnings(losses) you should have if you ran according to your equity all the time. But your winnings line is substantially higher due to positive variance.

      In other words: you're playing bad, but running good.

      PS: Teach me how to run good :p .
    • ShinShya
      ShinShya
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2009 Posts: 90
      Originally posted by Diedobal


      In other words: you're playing bad, but running good.

      PS: Teach me how to run good :p .
      Yea, your expectation (what you expect to win when you get it in) is way lower than your actual winnings. This means that if you actually ran the way this graph says you should, you would have way bigger losses than you do. Basically based on this graph, you are running very lucky with not-so-good play :( .

      Shinshya
    • FirestormX
      FirestormX
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 54
      You're EV, as you pointed out is horrifically negative.

      It might be a good time to take a break, take a look at some of your key hands and try to figure out why you're getting in behind with such regularity. There are a lot of resources on Pokerstrategy (as I'm sure you're aware) that can help you plug the leaks in your game.

      I'm having the opposite issue at the moment. My EV is through the roof, and my profits... well there aren't any to talk about.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      hiya diedo :D thanks for the evaluation. im having difficulties understanding what u are saying.

      Originally posted by Diedobal


      In other words: you're playing bad, but running good.

      PS: Teach me how to run good :p .

      after carefull evaluation of my sessions ive noticed the following

      - im not hitting flush draws given 4 suited cards on the flop, this is costing me.
      - my hands are getting dominated too often, ex. if im in with QQ someone will be in with kk or AA.
      - i am over playing pocket pairs for sure.
      - being new to full tilt i dont have much stats yet on most players so i can make the occasional bad call.

      so bad play wise, i can improve my pocket pair play.
      my stats will improve as i play, obviously and i can then pick my spots better.

      i got my son to evaluate my play and he pointed out that my match ups have been really bad luck but my play has a very strong dynamic at the tables.

      this contradicts what u are saying diedo so i need to understand this better as u are more experienced than both of us

      so the EV line represents my skill and the winnings line represents my luck?

      Originally posted by Diedoba

      'The EV line is your winnings(losses) you should have if you ran according to your equity all the time'
      here is my typical scenario...
      hand is dealt, i get AQ in late position , villan raises 3 BB from MP3, i check his stats 52/18
      i think im ahead of his range so i 3 bet him. end of hand villan turns over AK and takes the pot.

      i play mostly strong hands in position, i check to make sure im likely to be ahead(check equity) and make my play resulting in my hand getting dominated too often.
      this is the bulk of where i feel things are going wrong.

      here is the main matchups from my last session of play of which i won only once!
      KQ v QQ, AK v AA, 77 v AA, 88 v AK, AK v AA, 99 v TT, AQ v TT, JJ V AK, KK v AK. not to mention having KK twice and AA but getting no action.

      so where is the lack of skill in this? i dont have control over people getting delt the dominant hand, i can fold but if they are lose and over agressive preflop its an incentive to play a strong hand against then rather than fold. or am i missing something?

      i promise i will admit my play has been bad if i can understand :D
    • Diedobal
      Diedobal
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2007 Posts: 558
      Can't say much about the way you play as I only have your graph to base my assumptions on. On this graph your All-in EV line is sloping downwards quite consistantly. Which means you get the money in behind consistantly.

      My other assumptions:
      - You are to loose for a shortstack player, stealing a lot in position is good, but dont overplay AJ/KQ or lower pairs vs Full ring nits.
      - QQ vs AA or KK is completely standard, everyone gets those situations and in the long run hands like these are irrelevant for your winning rate.

      My advice:

      Stop playing shortstack poker on NL50.

      Go to NL10 shorthanded tables (max 6 players = more room to play) and buy in for a fullstack (10$) and learn gradually. As I told you before, dont go for the quick buck. Learn the game as it should be played and the bigger money will come in the long run.
      If you really want to keep playing shortstack poker, play by the pokerstrategy rules/handcharts. Elseway it's hard for an inexperienced player to make profit form Short Stack play.

      Post hands & watch videos to get your game reviewed.
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      KQ v QQ, AK v AA, 77 v AA, 88 v AK, AK v AA, 99 v TT, AQ v TT, JJ V AK, KK v AK.

      KQ vs QQ is bad !

      AK vs AA is bad !

      77 vs AA is bad !

      88 vs AK good pre- flop

      AK vs AA is bad !

      99 vs TT is bad ! and so on...

      Everybody come across with this situations... If they are not re-raising or limping with premium cards.. Maybe you lack the reading skills. Be always cautious against a LAG.. I hate LAGs but I think LAGs can win just as TAGs win. Never think I got aces OK, I guaranteed to win this hand. But more importantly don't get TILTed when your AA cracked. EV means expected value. So according your graph you should have lost 6xx $ but you haven't so I think you were making somebody very very angry with your play.
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Look all-in EV.... your graph....

      You must have leaks. Thats all I can see here.

      If you will continue the way your playing you will lose a lot of money soon.

      Because the really scary part is not that your like 10 stacks above EV, its that your still negative although being 10 stacks above EV.

      I would re-evaluate your game and post some hands into the hand evaluation forum.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      wow I'd love to run good as you.

      (re)read articles from what you've said you are overplaying some weak hands (KQ , AQ , 77, what's that thing about FD not hitting if you are actuallly running over expectation?)
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Wow you run good.. man... what a huge heater :s_o:
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      you've misunderstood a couple of things. where the thick green line is relative to the thin green line depends purely on how lucky you were in all-ins, and is completely independant of skill. or were you joking? the graph shows that you've been hugely lucky in all-in pots. it doesn't show that you were minimising your losses.

      anyway, if it's BSS, then it's nothing, and if it's SSS, i guess you're pretty bad.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      things are looking up now :) my crappy play was due to no stats on new platform. since my stats kicked in im up about 1.2k overall. and moved up to NL100. interestingly, i still perform much above expectation(must be the leaks ;) ), i checked my old party poker graphs and they are the same. heres a graph of last few days.



      anyway, thanks for the support in times of need.