[NL2-NL10] AKo nl100

    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      MP2 ($121.45)
      CO ($153.40)
      Button ($98.50)
      SB ($106.35)
      BB ($49.65)
      Hero (UTG) ($24)
      MP1 ($72.70)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with ,
      Hero bets $4, 5 folds, BB calls $3

      Flop: ($8.50) , , (2 players)
      BB bets $6, Hero folds

      Total pot: $8.50 | Rake: $0.40

      46/7, 41 coldcall, 24 wts, only 150 hands.
      1) Should I push here?
      2) Should I push if my stack was 20bb, not 24bb?
      3) What should I do if I have no stats on villain and 20bb in a stack

      Any mathematical reasons for your answers would be great! :)
  • 7 replies
    • ShinShya
      ShinShya
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2009 Posts: 90
      nvm
    • ShinShya
      ShinShya
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2009 Posts: 90
      Against this opponent, I would just let it go. He seems passive and bad. I don't see this type of player betting into you without something good. You don't want to call with your gut shot, and either of your overs may not be able to be counted as outs. If it were me, I'd just look for a better spot.

      Edit: Whoops, misread the hand. With or without a gut shot, I'm still letting it go in this situation. ty dandycal for pointing that out, sorry OP
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      @ SHinShya: He doesn't even have a gutshot here, it's a backdoor draw.

      Hi Aimboy,

      Imho
      1) No, your overcards are not good enough for you to push over his raise without any reads. He probably has a pair, against which you have roughly 6 outs. You get 1,4/1 pot odds, so you need 41% equity for breaking even (if I'm correct). 6 outs give you less than 30% chance of winning, so no go.

      2) Not even with a 20bb stack.
      3) Without stats/reads and with 20bb stack, just play the standard bet/fold.

      I hope this helps!
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Whats the AF and Aggression Frequency of the Villain? If you had more hands a "donk vs pfr" stat would be useful too. If these stats are low and i have no reason to suspect Villain of Bluffing i just let it go.
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      I don't remember his AF and when i'm posting hand I just look at stats from my HUD, I don't know how to search right hand in pt3 (yes, i'm a noob pt3 user :) )

      Anyway, from what AF would you push here? I really don't know how can I use agression factor, how much is low and high :/
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hello Aimboy,

      according to the hand, with only 150 hands in sample size I'm giving up against his donk bet with 24BB stack as well as with 20BB. Against any pair you have 6 outs, which gives you ~25% equity but you would need 43.4 including rake, you you're are way behind of being profitable here. You would need a lot of FE or bluff frequency to make your push profitable, but bluffing and FE is really hard to expect from such a loose(passive) player, so just wait till you get a hand and stack him then.

      If you had 500+ hands on him you could look at donkVSpfa and AF with halfway accuracy and then you might push if you saw those two values very high, but after 150hands it's an easy muck for me.

      About the AF thing, 1-1,5 is somewhat neutral, ordinary calling stations have about 0.5-1.5, solid TAG BSS players have around 7 flop AF/5 AF average and SSS players usually have 8-12, because they c-bet almost 100%. So you can have a bit of a picture about AF. However, according to xarry AF is one of the values that gets accurate as last because it needs biggest sample size(1k+ hands for solid accuracy). Oh, btw, AF is basically the ratio between raising and checking/calling.

      If you have some other question feel free to ask.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Wow, i'm impressed burek :)

      Thanks for very valuable analysis.