[NL2-NL10] AQs NL100

    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Party
      SB ($38.40)
      Hero ($20)
      UTG ($190)
      UTG+1 ($85.30)
      UTG+2 ($99.40)
      CO ($7)
      BTN ($112)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:diamond:

      MP1 raises to $3, MP2 calls $3, fold, fold, BTN calls $3, fold, Hero raises to $20 (AI), fold, MP2 calls $17, fold,

      FLOP ($46.50) J:spade: A:club: 2:heart:



      TURN ($46.50) J:spade: A:club: 2:heart: 3:diamond:



      RIVER ($46.50) J:spade: A:club: 2:heart: 3:diamond: A:spade:


      MP1
      9.2 k hands PFR MIDDLE- 11 % - so push will be ok.


      but

      MP2 1.1 k hands 12/5

      BTN 400 h 16/5
  • 6 replies
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      That's a fold, their stats aren't very loose, so they wouldn't call a raise with "any hand". I would fold preflop.
    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      I know that their not very loose but what that change? I don`t push with any two cards.



      I think they with their VPIP have to call with pockets and some strong cards for example ATs+, so my chance:


      22+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo 48.107%

      AQs 51.893%



      so i think push is good move, but i want to be sure
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      what are their cold call preflop percentages? VPIP must definitely be discounted here so your already marginal call is unlikely to be +EV
    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      hmm
    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      mp2 cold call = 9 %


      btn 4 % but only 400 hands
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hello PanDuzePE,

      when you're deciding to reraise(push) the most important stat is the PFR of initial raiser. And against MP1 you have ~50% equity, but with cold callers you definitely get the odds to push here. Although both cold callers are tight they will seldom have a hand to call your push unless they're trapping with a monster, but then you will be able to make a note on them and you still benefit from the push. Most of the time cold callers will call you(if they will at all) with mid PP and against that you're flipping with AQ, but with all the money on the table it's already +EV for you.

      Regards,
      burek2000