[NL2-NL10] AK, nl10 sh

    • Macias09
      Macias09
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2008 Posts: 1,821
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP3:
      $4,15
      Hero:
      $11,65

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.62 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:spade: , K:club:
      MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $0,30, CO folds, Hero raises to $1,00, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0,70.

      Flop: ($2,15) Q:spade: , T:club: , T:diamond: (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $1,50, MP3 raises to $3,15 (All-In), Hero calls $1,65.

      Turn: ($8,45) K:diamond:
      River: ($8,45) A:diamond: (2 players)


      Final Pot: $8,45

      easy call on the flop?
  • 10 replies
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      I personnally would fold on this flop. Especially against such LAG. He cold called your pre-flop raise so I would expect him to have something since he is all-in on the flop.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      easy call? ?(
      Unless you have a read on the guy just fold. Your equality here is too low to make a call profitable.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      You need ~20% to call. You even have 26% against one of the worst possible hand (except a T obviously) which is AQ. Against all one pair hands that don't steal any of your outs you have 46% equity.

      Easy call, nice hand.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 18.325% 17.864% 0.922% 81.214% AsKc
      Player 2: 81.675% 81.214% 0.922% 17.864% AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, QTo+, JTo

      Ev(call)= 6.8*0.183 - 1.65*0.816 = -0.10 < 0

      Pretty close but still negative EV. :(
    • Macias09
      Macias09
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2008 Posts: 1,821
      Originally posted by Fongie
      You need ~20% to call. You even have 26% against one of the worst possible hand (except a T obviously) which is AQ. Against all one pair hands that don't steal any of your outs you have 46% equity.

      Easy call, nice hand.
      Can you tell me why we need 20% to call? How did you calculate this? :)
    • delete461
      delete461
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      Pot is $6.80, you need to call $1.65. Therefore your share of the pot would be about 20% if you called.

      Even if he has trips here you have 4 outs to the nut straight (about 16%) and with two overcards as well Id say easy call.
    • Macias09
      Macias09
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2008 Posts: 1,821
      Originally posted by delete461
      Pot is $6.80, you need to call $1.65. Therefore your share of the pot would be about 20% if you called.

      Hmm
      6.80/1.65 = 4.1
      100/4.1 = 24% not 20% :P
    • delete461
      delete461
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      Once you make the call, the pot is $8.45 minus rake, and you have contributed about 20% of it with your call.
    • Macias09
      Macias09
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2008 Posts: 1,821
      Thank you for explanation :) Have a nice sunday :)
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      @maya

      Your range here is incorrect. He will also do this with any pocket and also sometimes random bluffs. Your range says he has a T way too often (like over 50% of the times) - he doesn't.

      delete explained the calculation, but I'd like to add there's a very good fixed limit article about calculating EV. Here