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What it means to bet/raise for value

    • Blinzler
      Joined: 04.03.2005 Posts: 7,456
      Because ther were some questions about what it means to bet/raise 4 value and i am not certain if that is covered in teh articles i will give a quick summary:
      Take a look at hand number 2:

      It could be argued that this is a way ahead way behind situation, because either we or villain is drawing almost dead on the flop, but this is not the case. That means that we should raise the turn in this example because we have value. The reason we have it is because
      a) we are ahead way more often than behind (only an A beats us which would be the only one left in the deck)
      b) when we raise, a lot more hands (any PP and possibly K/Q high might call us down

      so i will simply guess that 80% of the time he has a worse PP and is willing to call it down on the turn. the other 20% he has us beat, 3bets us and we call down.
      This means, ev calling is 0,8*(+2)+(0,2)(-2) = +1,2
      raising: 0,8(+3)+(0,2)(-4) = +1,6
      so you see the ev of raising is bigger than that of calling even under circumstances which in reality are way better. (numbers were guessed very pessimisticly)

      So basically, the definition of value is the following:
      if villain could not raise we would have a value bet when he is more likely to call with a worse hand than with a better one. Practically when we cant fold to a raise/3-bet we need to have him call with a worse hand 66% of the time to compensate for the danger of getting more value from his better hands.

      I hope this somewhat illustrates the idea of valuebetting/raising.
  • 6 replies
    • aciddrop
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Thanks. This makes a lot of sense. I think the problem I suffer is that I automatically assume the worst. He has the Ace. Realistically, that can't always be true. I will lose when he does, but win when he doesn't, and so your explanation of how to get the best value is clear. The result of any particular hand is almost irrelevant, the most gain long term is to be had if we bet as you suggest. BTW, that is a great new avatar.
    • wilm
      Joined: 13.07.2006 Posts: 1,583
      What is an easy way to calculate the % of chance to hit your card on the turn or river?

      So 4 outs would be xx%
      5 out xx% ect?

      I heard someone say something like outs +2x2 ? So 4outs would be 16% or something then?

      I know that with a flush draw i have a chance of 35% hitting my flush on the turn or river. How do u calculate this yourself? I think this will make it easyier for me to decide wether to call or raise for value.
    • Stefan1000
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      An easy rule as far as i know is multiply your outs by 4 on the flop and by 2 on the turn:

      So lets say you have a flush draw on the flop (9 outs) that would be 9 * 4 = 36% the truth percentage to make your flush is i think somewhere close to this 35.XX%. And when you are on the turn it is 2*9 = 18%this is especially interesting if you want to know the chance that you make your draw from flop to river and turn to river.

      But i am not that mathematical expert, so i am not sure if this is completly correct.

      Best regards,
    • wilm
      Joined: 13.07.2006 Posts: 1,583
      Can somebody confirm that this is correct?
    • Mugge88
      Joined: 29.10.2006 Posts: 510
      It is :) it's very close to calculating the excact odds, and its definately faster when you're sitting at the table :)
    • Classical
      Joined: 26.03.2007 Posts: 1,041
      Originally posted by wilmI know that with a flush draw i have a chance of 35% hitting my flush on the turn or river. How do u calculate this yourself?
      Sorry to bump an old topic. I am only a beginning player, but I do know how to calculate probablilities.

      Take the example of a flush draw (9 outs): First you calculate the chance that you will NOT hit the turn NOR the river.
      - chance of NOT hitting the turn: (47-9)/47 = 38/47
      - chance of NOT hitting the river after you've not hit the turn: (46-9)/46 = 37/46
      Now multiply these two to get app 65% (65.0324% with some decimals)chance that you will not hit your draw. That makes 1-65% = 35% chance that you WILL hit your draw.

      In general for n outs the formula for hitting an out on turn or river is:
      1 - (47-n)*(46-n)/(47*46). Multiply by 100 if you prefer percentages.

      Of course this is much too complicated to calculate at the table (at least for me). I guess experienced players either know the probabilities by heart, or apply the mentioned shortcut of 4*n (the result to be read as a percentage). The relative error for this shortcut is 5% or less for 2 up to 11 outs, and 10% or less for anything up to 14 outs. For even higher number of outs the error increases further.