Hand of the Day - Part XIII

    • Stefan1000
      Stefan1000
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      Preflop: Hero is BB with 5:heart: 5:diamond:
      1 folds, SB raises, Hero 3-Bets, SB calls

      Flop (6 SB): T:heart: K:club: T:spade:
      SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

      Turn (4 BB) : 9:spade:
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River (4 BB): 9:diamond:
      SB bets, Hero raises
  • 7 replies
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Well. This is SB vs BB, and our pp is a strong holding, so I like the 3bet. On this flop he check/calls, so either is weak, or setting us up for a turn C/R. I think we want to see a showdown, so checking behind the turn is good, we make it a free card for us. I think we would have called down a bet here. If we are best on the turn, we are still best on the river, great card for us. Is the raise for value here? The questions are:

      How often is this situation going to come out in our favour, and how will I work that out?
      Who is my opponent, and what is their playing pattern? This is either tricky play, and he is better than us, or dumb play, and he has tumbled into our trap. Passive just wouldn’t bet here after checking the turn.

      If we would have a +ev more than 50% of the time with this hand, and we know our opponent, the raise could be for value. But if he 3bets, we are lost, and if he is worse, mostly he isn’t going for the bluff here I think. I would probably call the river here. But please explain to me how I can work out how often our hand would survive as best.
    • jpbothawyn777
      jpbothawyn777
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.06.2006 Posts: 67
      the bet on the flop is good
      I would bet on the turn and fold to a c/r
      the river is a bad card we r behind a A wich he might have called us with, but the rest of the hands r split pots, just call the bet
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Except, of course, I just realised that now our cards don't play at all!! At best we split this pot, so our raise is pure bluff. How likely is he to have an A, K, T or 9, and how likely is he to fold to our bluff? We get called if he is even and raised if he is better. Our bluff is going to cost us long term I think. Bad move. Even if he will fold 65% and raise 35%, we are losing I think. Is this correct?
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      In fact, thinking further now, this is a disaster. At best, we get our money back. He is better almost 25% of the time. If he raises when he is better, we are losing heaps. We must call, but even that loses money. We break even, minus rake, 75% and lose 25%. Calling has a lesser -EV than folding. I think JP is correct. The outcome of this sheds light on how we must play hands like this. Our preflop holding is good. We bet aggressively, and the flop is also good, in that only 2 cards can help our opponent. Exlcluding a higher pp which is to say 66, 77, 88, he is 8-1 underdog. We should bet the turn. If he check/raises, evaluate on the information we have about him, but fold if he is generally passive, or tight aggressive. The river is a disaster.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      So, lets go a bit further with this. If we call, we split the pot 75% and lose 25%. If we bluff raise, how often will our opponent fold, compared to how often he will reraise? If he will always call our bluff, then obviously it is rubbish. There must be some percentage that he would fold to our bluff, and this could radically alter the EV. I think calling here might actually be incorrect. We must raise, and fold to a reraise. At least, someone needs to tell me how to work out the EV on this play. When he calls, it is still even. When he folds, we take the pot, we are in front. When we fold, we lose one more bet.
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      To finalise that thought, calling is losing us money. Will raising, on average, lose us more or less?
    • aciddrop
      aciddrop
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.10.2006 Posts: 1,519
      Just finally, I think that because we have checked behind the turn, we have given ourselves up, and we must call here and cut our losses. On every board where we bet this turn, and he calls behind, a raise to a bet here might be better than a call. Our opponent would have to have doubts enough times to warrant examining this.