Monster draws don't hit

    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      It seems like whenever I get a monster draw on Stars, it never hits. I am going to start keeping track.

      I am going to post any monster draw that happens while playing, or that I come across while reviewing hands. If I play or find one that hits, I will post it as well.


      Today:


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $62.50
      BU:
      $98.00

      2/4 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:spade: , 9:spade:
      Hero raises, BU 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

      Flop: (7.50 SB) J:spade: , 3:club: , T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets, Hero calls.

      Turn: (4.75 BB) Q:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets, Hero calls.

      River: (6.75 BB) 3:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets, Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: 6.75 BB
  • 18 replies
    • zivkoleo
      zivkoleo
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 215
      Why didn't you raise the turn. You should be happy if you get a 3-bet there. :D
    • kingdippy2008
      kingdippy2008
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      No Limit Holdem Tournament
      $4.00+$0.40
      8 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG Hero (1550)
      UTG+1 ciomar78 (2250)
      MP1 zStranger (1200)
      MP2 andyc337 (2150)
      CO joejoe82 (1760)
      BTN Kingfinga (1360)
      SB froab (1250)
      BB GRANDOSbg (3100)

      Blinds: 10/20

      Pre-flop: (30, 8 players) Hero is UTG K:spade: A:diamond:
      Hero raises to 80, ciomar78 calls 80, 2 folds, joejoe82 raises to 140, 3 folds, Hero raises to 440, ciomar78 folds, joejoe82 goes all-in 1,760, Hero goes all-in 1,110

      Flop: 7:diamond: 3:spade: 4:spade: (3,420, 2 players)

      Turn: 2:spade: (3,420, 2 players)

      River: 5:diamond: (3,420, 2 players)

      Final Pot: 3,210
      joejoe82 shows: Q:club: Q:diamond:
      Hero shows: K:spade: A:diamond:

      joejoe82 wins 210 ( lost -1,550 )
      Hero wins 3,210 ( won +1,660 )
      ciomar78 lost -80

      I hit a monster draw :/ 18 outs on river - im still behind though
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      I didn't raise the turn because: While I had quite a few outs, it was not enough for a value raise. If you equilate the hand vs the Approx chart 3-betting range (since 81 hands is not enough to have credible stats, especially with how weird his stats are), I only have about 42% equity. So with a value raise out of the question, the only reason I would raise would be for a semi-bluff, which, on a super draw heavy, high card board vs a preflop 3-bet is not likely to be effective.

      Also, monster draws hardly ever hit in Pokerstars FL Hold 'em, hence the title of the thread.


      Here's another from today:


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      SB:
      $94.50
      Hero:
      $126.50
      CO:
      $59.00
      BU:
      $66.00

      2/4 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:heart: , 4:heart:
      MP3 folds, CO raises, BU calls, SB calls, Hero calls.

      Flop: (8.00 SB) Q:spade: , T:heart: , J:heart: (4 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets, CO calls, BU calls, SB calls.

      Turn: (6.00 BB) 7:spade: (4 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks, CO checks, BU bets, SB folds, Hero calls, CO calls.

      River: (9.00 BB) 8:diamond: (3 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets, 2 folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: 9.00 BB
    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      I've had the same problem as you. I'm personally sick of Pokerstars, I can't make a consisten profit there.

      Get QQ, Villain cold calls with K5s. Flop - 6 :diamond: 7 :heart: 5 :diamond:

      Turn and river are both :heart: 's. Of course he has a flush.
      Then when I get a flush draw the turn and river bring blanks and/or pair the board.

      I'm not calling pokerstars rigged but I can't stand the way I run there.
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      Yeah, it seems like feast or famine there. Right now Stars, for me, is in it's "bullshit" phase, where nothing hits and if it does, it gets sucked out. I realize that is part of it, but it happens on and on and on.

      Anyway, even when I'm running well, the monster draws don't hit. Here's another one from today:


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $57.00
      MP2:
      $97.50
      BU:
      $77.00

      2/4 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T:heart: , 8:heart:
      MP2 calls, 2 folds, BU raises, SB folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

      Flop: (6.50 SB) 9:diamond: , 6:heart: , 9:heart: (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 bets, BU calls, Hero raises, MP2 calls, BU calls.

      Turn: (6.25 BB) J:spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets, MP2 calls, BU raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

      River: (12.25 BB) 2:club: (3 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 checks, BU bets, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

      Final Pot: 14.25 BB

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      BU shows three of a kind, nines (9c Ac)
      MP2 shows two pairs, nines and sixes (6c 3c)

      BU wins with three of a kind, nines (9c Ac)
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      pokerstars is rigged obviously :( .
    • suvalgysiu
      suvalgysiu
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2007 Posts: 307
      Originally posted by strat9
      It seems like whenever I get a monster draw on Stars, it never hits. I am going to start keeping track.

      I am going to post any monster draw that happens while playing, or that I come across while reviewing hands. If I play or find one that hits, I will post it as well.


      Today:


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $62.50
      BU:
      $98.00

      2/4 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:spade: , 9:spade:
      Hero raises, BU 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.

      Flop: (7.50 SB) J:spade: , 3:club: , T:spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets, Hero calls.

      Turn: (4.75 BB) Q:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets, Hero calls.

      River: (6.75 BB) 3:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets, Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: 6.75 BB
      omfg spread this message all over the poker forums, we finally caught stars rigging their games! :s_o:
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Originally posted by strat9
      I didn't raise the turn because: While I had quite a few outs, it was not enough for a value raise. If you equilate the hand vs the Approx chart 3-betting range (since 81 hands is not enough to have credible stats, especially with how weird his stats are), I only have about 42% equity. So with a value raise out of the question, the only reason I would raise would be for a semi-bluff, which, on a super draw heavy, high card board vs a preflop 3-bet is not likely to be effective.

      Also, monster draws hardly ever hit in Pokerstars FL Hold 'em, hence the title of the thread.

      Nice but just make sure you are reviewing the right hands, if you evaulate them at all?
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      And another one from today:


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $102.00
      BB:
      $81.00
      BU:
      $65.00

      2/4 Fixed-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:spade: , 8:spade:
      CO folds, BU calls, Hero raises, BB calls, BU calls.

      Flop: (6.00 SB) 5:spade: , 7:club: , T:spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets, BB raises, BU calls, Hero 3-bets, BB caps, BU folds, Hero calls.

      Turn: (8.00 BB) 9:heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets, Hero calls.

      River: (10.00 BB) 3:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB bets, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: 10.00 BB
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      Originally posted by strat9
      I didn't raise the turn because: While I had quite a few outs, it was not enough for a value raise. If you equilate the hand vs the Approx chart 3-betting range (since 81 hands is not enough to have credible stats, especially with how weird his stats are), I only have about 42% equity. So with a value raise out of the question, the only reason I would raise would be for a semi-bluff, which, on a super draw heavy, high card board vs a preflop 3-bet is not likely to be effective.

      Also, monster draws hardly ever hit in Pokerstars FL Hold 'em, hence the title of the thread.

      Nice but just make sure you are reviewing the right hands, if you evaulate them at all?
      ???

      I'm not sure what that means, but I evaluate my hands. I'm still learning though, so if something is wrong with that hand review, you should try posting what you think is correct so that I and other readers may learn something.

      Also, hand evaluation isn't really the point of the thread. The point is to review monster draws (which, in this case means flush draws + OESD's). So the point is to show: These are the cards in my hand and these are the subsequent cards on the board. Meaning, does a flush or a straight hit when the hole cards have a draw to both of them?

      The answer, so far, is almost always "no". I would absolutely love to be proven wrong and any hand that hits will be posted along with ones that don't. If enough of them hit then I may just change the name to simply "Monster Draws", but I will continue to post them here because it is something I want to watch. The point of the thread isn't to bitch or to evaluate hands, but to review the repeated outcome of a specific situation and share it.

      At the same time, hand evaluations are perfectly welcome and almost always interesting, so feel free.

      If this was not the meaning of your post, then I apologize, but I am also at a loss as to what you are talking about.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Seems you are focusing a little to much one area to me is all.... Perhaps, you are playing to many draws?

      Find the hands you won with - How did you play them... Were there any streets you could of maybe been behind but bet anyway? Check opponent stats, if they have a VPIP of only 6 across 2k hands he aint holding junk when he raises you with a PFR of 6 to.

      This looks like a short stack strategy player. Use this to your advantage.... Follow what his continuation bet percentage on the flop is. How often does he fold to your continuation bet?

      If he re-raises you did you get out the hand? Cos unless you have a real good hand, he probably has better.


      What SD hands are winning and lossing most with....

      Top pair - What's ya average win/loss... if you are losing why? Follow the trails to when you get with only Top pair. Where were ahead in the hand, where should you of folded.

      Whether you won or lost doesn't matter, but upon reviewing the hand, would you still played it like that to SD if you could see his cards?

      Be honest with yourslef though.

      It will all become clear....

      If you are winning with a hand AA for example, then look at all your wins... Where did you overbet? Where did you get caught out?

      Who caught you out? Look at his stats. Can you prevent from happening again, or continue to maximise profits this way?

      So many factors, step back and take real look that's all I am saying :)

      If you do then fair play.... But try widen your area for search... It's the way you find and small gaps in your play before they reach big leaks in your BR.


      That's my thought's


      Chill, take the ride with poker. But you need to respect the game. And do a lot of homework to succeed.
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      This is Fixed Limit Short-handed.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,235
      Originally posted by strat9
      This is Fixed Limit Short-handed.

      Most of it still applies
    • Agiz19
      Agiz19
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2007 Posts: 1,122
      LOL. you cant hit any time u have oesd and str8 flush draw actually most of the time you will loose the hand...especially on pstars :) gl
    • andyb43
      andyb43
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      My Thought.....................

      If they hit all the time, they wouldn't be called draws :f_biggrin:
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      Ok, this was a thread I started awhile ago bitching about Pokerstars. I have since considered it a waste of time posting complaints, but ever since I have been playing on Pokerstars, it seems that monster draws (flush draws + OESDs in this instance) just do not hit.

      Of course, I don't expect them to hit everytime, so if you have some smart ass comment along those lines, fuck off. You are one of those people who contradict others who bitch about rigged games, but have just as little a clue of what you are talking about as those who claim it is rigged.

      Anyway, this is something that has been sitting in the back of my mind, on and off, for nearly the whole time I have been playing on Stars. I would like to wrap my mind around it finally.

      But, in PT3, I filtered all games from .05/.1 FL to 3/6 FL 6-max and totaled to nearly 165,000 hands. Then, I filtered out the hands where I had a flush draw AND a straight draw on the flop and the total was 974 hands. Then I further filtered these hands to a straight OR a flush on the turn and it totaled to 211.

      211/974 = 21.7% (23%)

      Shouldn't a draw with 15 outs hit 31.9% (32%) of the time on the next street?

      I looked this up because I was hoping that my stats would prove me wrong, that these draws DO hit like they are mathematically supposed to. I still am open to be proven wrong, but either it is true or I am not figuring something right or filtering PT3 right.

      I realize there are other scenarios to look at, but this is the simplest one, so I thought I would start with this for right now. nearly every source of poker info says that variance should even out by somewhere around 100,000 hands, so it seems i=this is a large enough sample size. If anyone wants to help work through this so I can get it out of the back of my mind, feel free to chime in. As of now, it seems these draws do not hit like they are supposed to.
    • strat9
      strat9
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.02.2008 Posts: 511
      Methodology is flawed in the above post.
    • cash4mebg
      cash4mebg
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.08.2009 Posts: 613
      The % isn't as high as expected, because you don't have the maximum amount of outs every time. Villian can also have outs that you expect to come and some outs are folded. I think this should be the reason, correct me if I'm wrong.