[NL20-NL50] QJh utg - trips

    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $20.55
      Hero:
      $21.56
      MP1:
      $77.94

      0.1/0.2 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q:heart: , J:heart:
      Hero calls $0.20, 2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.60, 5 folds, BB calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.90) Q:spade: , Q:diamond: , 8:club: (3 players)
      BB bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, MP1 calls $0.60.

      Turn: ($3.70) 7:spade: (3 players)
      BB bets $2.40, Hero calls $2.40, MP1 folds.

      River: ($8.50) 9:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $8.50

      Value bet river right? I was wary of his stats.
  • 4 replies
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Of course value bet that river, you can even raise that turn :)

      Just a little advice. You seem to be judging a lot with the W$SD stats, WTS stats etc.
      I hardly ever look at those stats when I decide if I want to value bet or not, maybe just sometimes when I decide to call or not in marginal situations.

      The stats happen because other players, who play worse then you, make him win. Hence if you play against him it does not mean that because his stat says that he wins 60% of the time on showdown he will win 60% of the time against you and hence you goto be very careful. You know for sure in cases like these that you have the best hand.

      You think I player which usually wins 60% of the time at showdown if he goes to showdown (I presume that this is what W$SD means) would play his hand in such a way that he now holds 10J or Q with a higher kicker then you at the river? Nope not really.

      Stats are good and all, but be a bit more careful with the stats which require huge sample sizes to be accurate. Common thinking on these limits outweighs stats like W$SD I think.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Fold pf
      Valuebet river, I´d personally would likely make small raise on the flop and take initiative
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by Kaitz20

      Valuebet river, I´d personally would likely make small raise on the flop and take initiative
      If BB smells a rat(trips) he will stop betting imo

      I do think I should raise turn though
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by TheBrood
      Originally posted by Kaitz20

      Valuebet river, I´d personally would likely make small raise on the flop and take initiative
      If BB smells a rat(trips) he will stop betting imo

      I do think I should raise turn though
      raising turn is fine, although that is a lot stronger when raising small on the flop