[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR, JJ, 3bet-push behind

    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $2.00
      CO:
      $8.18
      BU:
      $5.01
      SB:
      $10.08
      BB:
      $10.54
      UTG1(Hero):
      $10.15
      UTG2:
      $1.70
      MP1:
      $10.03
      MP2:
      $10.85

      Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands)
      MP2 - 37/17/3.0/30

      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with J, J.
      Hero raises to $0.4, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $10.85(All-In), 5 folds, Hero calls $9.75(All-In).

      Flop: ($21.15) Q, 6, J (2 players)

      Turn: ($21.15) 5 (2 players)

      River: ($21.15) 9 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $21.15.

      Hi,
      I was confused about why would he shove rather than 3bet normally. Thought I had a flip at worst
      Would you call his shove preflop?

      Thanks!
  • 5 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      The sample is too small to estimate his range here.
      It's pretty close but with out any reads I prefer taking the non-variance decision and fold.
      I'm calling here with QQ+.
    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Well, I had some fun with PokerStove, and it says that even if we include only middle and high pairs and AK in his range, it's 52/48 in his favour, so I have the odds to call. If we don't include AA and KK (which he probably would not play so straitforward), I'm the favourite

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 48.128% 46.90% 01.22% 226485552 5911086.00 { JJ }
      Hand 1: 51.872% 50.65% 01.22% 244562004 5911086.00 { 99+, AKs, AKo }

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 58.232% 56.66% 01.57% 203742552 5651328.00 { JJ }
      Hand 1: 41.768% 40.20% 01.57% 144538632 5651328.00 { QQ-99, AKs, AKo }

      So I think I can call unless I'm sure he's tight. He has 37 VPIP, this shows he's not tight, even if the sample is small :) Anything wrong with this argument?

      And, Maya, congratulations on your promotion to a judge :)
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Hi Yuris,
      Thanks, I'll do my best helping you guys improving your game.
      About the hand: Again 30 hands are way too small. But even if we assume is not that tight I'm not in favor of a call.
      Like poker stove shows you, you will be a slight underdog. A call will be more or less a 50% gamble on a stack.
      Why should I gamble on a stack when I got so much edge on must of the players in NL10?
      I hope you understand my point of view on this hand.

      Good Luck!

      Maya
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      Agree with judge here. Don`t get into spots like this especially on NL10/NL25. Just valuetown your opponents when you know you are ahead rather than getting into marginal spots where you are not sure if you are a little ahead or way behind.

      Because in this spot either he is doing it with a range like you gave him which would be very stupid of him and you are ahead but marginally , or he is doing this only with AA and maybe KK which again is very stupid of him but in this case you are way behind.
    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      I do understand, and I think you're right. Thanks Maya :)
      (Although in this case he had AK, and if I had QQ and called, I would have the same chances :) )