[NL2-NL10] AQs vs 3bet

    • cyzo
      cyzo
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.07.2008 Posts: 117
      Villain stats:
      Hands: 162
      VPIP: 11
      PFR: 11
      3bet: 10.5

      Equilator says that all of the following hands have sufficient equity to justify a call giving the potsize and 10.5% range. However, I found it hard to believe that the actual range was as wide as 10% (though, in retrospect, villain is -33BB/100 :f_confused:
      Pairs
      55+

      Suited
      ATs+
      KQs

      Offsuit
      AJo+

      What I knew about basic SSS says that I should fold. Also, the raise with AQs was from UTG, the latest early position. Should I have folded prefop or to the raise?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($51.35)
      BB ($67.25)
      Hero ($7.95)
      UTG+1 ($95.60)
      UTG+2 ($10.50)
      MP1 ($18.95)
      CO ($46.95)
      BTN ($8.50)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:diamond:

      Hero raises to $2, fold, UTG+2 raises to $10.50 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $5.95 (AI),
  • 5 replies
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Against that opponent you have an easy push:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,340% 48,403% 9,875% 41,722% AQs
      Player 2: 46,660% 41,722% 9,875% 48,403% 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo

      Strange here is that he raised all-in from EP, where there are still 5 players after him, so I think his range could be tighter than 10%. Now I'm waiting for judges to say something :D
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      you only need ~36% equity here with 12BB stack so it's a pretty straightforward push imo
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Yeah, I'm pretty sure we have to call here, but how should we estimate UTG2'2 hand range? It should be tighter if he is 3betting from EP, right?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      you're right but even if I were to halve UTG2's 3bet range, calling is still correct.

      UTG2's hand range here is 5%: 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 58.871% 55.48% 03.40% 193780392 11863194.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
      Hand 1: 41.129% 37.73% 03.40% 131803236 11863194.00 { AQs }

      5% is a little conservative btw, this guy seems to be 3betting all hands which he would open-raise with, so I think discounting to 7-8% would be more accurate.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey cyzo,

      after 162 hands those stats can still be variance of SSS player. Besides that's his overall 3-bet range where resteals are usually biggest part of it and I don't think he's senseless enough to 3-bet SSS UTG openraise with that range, I don't think he even 3-bets 5%, so I would muck AQs if someone 3-bets my UTG raise unless I have a big sample size and I can look up his positional 3-bet raise. Against standard AK/JJ+ 3-bet range you don't get the right odds to call.

      Regards,
      burek2000