This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL2-NL10] AQs vs 3bet

    • cyzo
      Joined: 19.07.2008 Posts: 117
      Villain stats:
      Hands: 162
      VPIP: 11
      PFR: 11
      3bet: 10.5

      Equilator says that all of the following hands have sufficient equity to justify a call giving the potsize and 10.5% range. However, I found it hard to believe that the actual range was as wide as 10% (though, in retrospect, villain is -33BB/100 :f_confused:



      What I knew about basic SSS says that I should fold. Also, the raise with AQs was from UTG, the latest early position. Should I have folded prefop or to the raise?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($51.35)
      BB ($67.25)
      Hero ($7.95)
      UTG+1 ($95.60)
      UTG+2 ($10.50)
      MP1 ($18.95)
      CO ($46.95)
      BTN ($8.50)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: Q:diamond:

      Hero raises to $2, fold, UTG+2 raises to $10.50 (AI), fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $5.95 (AI),
  • 5 replies
    • Aimboy
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Against that opponent you have an easy push:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,340% 48,403% 9,875% 41,722% AQs
      Player 2: 46,660% 41,722% 9,875% 48,403% 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo

      Strange here is that he raised all-in from EP, where there are still 5 players after him, so I think his range could be tighter than 10%. Now I'm waiting for judges to say something :D
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      you only need ~36% equity here with 12BB stack so it's a pretty straightforward push imo
    • Aimboy
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Yeah, I'm pretty sure we have to call here, but how should we estimate UTG2'2 hand range? It should be tighter if he is 3betting from EP, right?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      you're right but even if I were to halve UTG2's 3bet range, calling is still correct.

      UTG2's hand range here is 5%: 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 58.871% 55.48% 03.40% 193780392 11863194.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
      Hand 1: 41.129% 37.73% 03.40% 131803236 11863194.00 { AQs }

      5% is a little conservative btw, this guy seems to be 3betting all hands which he would open-raise with, so I think discounting to 7-8% would be more accurate.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey cyzo,

      after 162 hands those stats can still be variance of SSS player. Besides that's his overall 3-bet range where resteals are usually biggest part of it and I don't think he's senseless enough to 3-bet SSS UTG openraise with that range, I don't think he even 3-bets 5%, so I would muck AQs if someone 3-bets my UTG raise unless I have a big sample size and I can look up his positional 3-bet raise. Against standard AK/JJ+ 3-bet range you don't get the right odds to call.