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[NL2-NL10] Bottom two from the BB and possibly my worst call ever (NL25 FR)

    • howard182
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      Okay, this one isn't about a little missed value or a monster that I couldn't've escaped or a bad beat, it's a spot where I honestly don't know what I should've done and if I'm wrong I lose a whole buy in. I flop bottom two on a rainbow board with only a fairly unlikely straight draw, which isn't at all bad when I've just joined the table and got to see the flop for free, but while I'm probably ahead I'm also vulnerable so I come out betting. My turn bet is, shockingly, raised and suddenly I don't know where I stand. I called and check/called the river because I honestly don't see many hands that are beating me other than pocket pairs being limped from UTG.

      This hand was not good for my heart, I think I need some advice.

      PartyPoker $25 NL Hold'em [color:#0000FF](10 handed)[/color] Recorded and converted with HandRecorder

      Stacks & Stats
      MP1 ($55.54)
      MP3 ($19.05)
      CO ($32.20)
      BU ($23.20)
      SB ($25.60)
      UTG ($22.04)
      UTG+1 ($14.70)
      UTG+2 ($28.10)
      MP2 ($13.75)
      Hero ($25)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:spade: , 3:diamond:
      UTG calls $0.25, [color:#666666]2 folds[/color], MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, [color:#666666]4 folds[/color], Hero checks.

      Flop: ($1.10) J:diamond: , 3:spade: , Q:heart: [color:#0000FF](4 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]Hero bets $0.75[/color], UTG calls $0.75, MP1 folds, MP2 folds.

      Turn: ($2.60) 8:diamond: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]Hero bets $1.50[/color], [color:#FF0000]UTG raises to $5[/color], Hero calls $3.50.

      River: ($12.60) 7:diamond: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, [color:#FF0000]UTG bets $16.04 (all-in)[/color], Hero calls $16.04.

      Final Pot: $44.68.
  • 4 replies
    • Alaton
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,498
      In my oponion this is a fold on the Turn, I don't see many hands where he raises the turn instead of the flop which don't have you beat.
      33,QJ,T9 (and JJ,QQ of course) or some weird hit twopair on the turn obviously beats you.

      The Raise is a bit small though, you get nearly 3:1 on your call, so I think calling is an option too, but it is definitely a fold on the River, he overbets the pot here and now many Hands are possible which all have you beat!

      I myself, as the hand was played, would lay it down on the turn.

      A better line for this hand is to check-call the turn, as you don't want to let the pot get too big and you get to the showdown cheaper, a flushdraw is not very likely and one straightdraw from the flop already got there so you save money by check-calling! Also you can collect more money from people bluffing at you on the turn and you often can make a little valuebet on the river.
    • howard182
      Joined: 30.10.2006 Posts: 416
      I've been thinking a lot about this hand since posting it, initially trying to come to terms with what was probably a bad call then finding that I was actually unable to classify as one. Obviously if he's got a genuine hand which he wouldn't raise the flop with I'm beat, there's no escaping that, so it comes down to whether he does have one.

      My river call, by far the most questionable action in this hand, was largely based on my opinion that this was a very unlikely line for extracting value. The turn raise was barely plausible for value, more likely for protection and quite likely to be a (semi-)bluff (although probably not for the flush). The river overbet is something I almost never see from an opponent who honestly wishes to be called, I was of the opinion that he was looking for a fold so my estimation that my two pair was good actually went up enough to justify a call in my mind at this point.

      Maybe it really was a bad call, but I'm not seeing that. I think I'd make it again now that I've thought about it, although this was one spot where I was dying for a real read!

      Oh, and I did win the hand. He turned over JT.
    • Alaton
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,498
      A read on your opponent would definitely help you here.
      An aggressive opponent is more likely to do this as a bluff then a normal player is.

      I really don't think here are many possible Hands that semibluff the Turn for your opponent which you beat at the river!
      T9 got there on the turn, a flushdraw is also made on the river, only real draw could be KT.
      I would most of the times assume a good hand from my opponent here without a read, especially on the low limits opponents tend to be calling a lot but not being too aggressiv when having nothing (at least that's my impression).
      As a sidenote, you need to win the pot in ~40% of the cases to break even.
      I myself do Overbets as Valuebets from time to time.

      Without a read I would still fold this here. He could very well hit the straight or something and just wants the double up rather then a half the pot bet. And as he is only a little bit over the whole pot, betting potsize would look very strange too. So pushing is often seen as a bluff, which you did too.
      An estimation of your opponent is really needed here, but without any reads this is just not possible to judge.
    • vladnz
      Joined: 17.01.2007 Posts: 1,355
      fold on the turn when he raised