[NL2-NL10] NL5SH QQ on JTT board

    • ptmx
      ptmx
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 25
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      CO:
      $5.97
      BU:
      $8.49
      SB:
      $1.80
      BB(Hero):
      $5.48
      MP2:
      $5.00
      MP3:
      $1.53

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q.
      3 folds, BU raises to $0.15, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.47, BU calls $0.32.

      Flop: ($0.96) J, T, T (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.70, BU calls $0.70.

      Turn: ($2.36) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.45, BU calls $1.45.

      River: ($5.26) 5 (2 players)
      ??

      Villain is 19 VPIP/15 PFR/3.8 AF over ~200 hands. Frankly, I was a little lost in this hand. The villain steals 31% of the time, so he has a pretty loose preflop range here and QQ is an easy reraise. I imagine he calls the reraise with a fairly wide range; my reraise is $0.32 more and our stacks are both > $5 so he certainly has the implied odds to call with 22+ for set value, and he's probably going to call something like ATs+ and AJo+, probably KQ and maybe QJs (correct me if this isn't a realistic range). It also seems fairly likely that he 4bets KK/AA.

      Considering that I have the initiative and an overpair on a JTT flop, I do a standard continuation bet. After he calls, I have a pretty hard time putting him on a range. His AF is 3.8, which leads me to believe that he would play a hand like AT straightforwardly and just raise, though he might play something really strong like TT more passively. He probably also calls AJ and maybe something like KQ, so I figure that a turn bet still has some value.

      The river is a fairly "safe" card, but I'm not really sure what I'm beating that would call a bet at this point. AJ seems like the only plausible hand that I'm ahead of, whereas AT/JJ/AJ/KK/AA are all ahead of me. He could conceivably have KQ (though not likely imo), but then he isn't calling a bet anyway. Is this a check/fold, then?
  • 6 replies
    • jupiterthegreat999
      jupiterthegreat999
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.03.2009 Posts: 64
      hmm, looks like a busted straight or flush draw to me, but then I am not that good to judge.

      would have bet myself. or check and call a reasonable bet. surely he would have raised you by now if he has a T.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      I prefer to B/F the river. I don't want to face a big bet on the river from a busted draw. (BTW he could have played this way with 88 or 99)
    • ptmx
      ptmx
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 25
      Originally posted by maya1984
      I prefer to B/F the river. I don't want to face a bit bet on the river from a busted draw. (BTW he could have played this way with 88 or 99)
      Considering that I only have $2.86 and the pot is $5.26 on the river, am I essentially just forced to shove? I can't really think of a bet I could make that wouldn't commit me if he shoved.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Sorry I didn't notice your stack. Since you will be committed and will be forced to shove (if you choose to bet) I going to check/call the river.

      I can't throw away my OP here because:
      1. You will get good odds to call (almost 3:1)
      2. You still beat AJ
      3. He might try to bluff you with a busted draw.
    • ptmx
      ptmx
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.04.2009 Posts: 25
      Originally posted by maya1984
      Sorry I didn't notice your stack. Since you will be committed and will be forced to shove (if you choose to bet) I going to check/call the river.

      I can't throw away my OP here because:
      1. You will get good odds to call (almost 3:1)
      2. You still beat AT
      3. He might try to bluff you with a busted draw.
      Okay, thanks for the feedback--check/call does seem to be a better line (I'm assuming you meant AJ and typoed AT). I shoved and was unfortunately shown TT for quads ;( .
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      I don't mind shoving the river, if you know that he might be on draw then Check/Call is an option but I don't really expect him to bluff there very often, I like putting my money in here on river. You are losing value with Check/Calling against Jx hands and some weaker PPs.

      Best regards,
      Rensu