[NL20-NL50] AJo

    • StraightGinn
      StraightGinn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 913
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.49)
      BB ($70.45)
      UTG ($62.70)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      CO ($88.44)
      Hero ($53.16)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: A:club:

      fold, CO raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $6.75, fold, CO calls $5,

      FLOP ($21.50) 4:heart: 9:club: 5:spade:

      SB bets $15.49, CO folds, Hero calls $15.49,

      TURN ($52.48) 4:heart: 9:club: 5:spade: T:club:



      RIVER ($52.48) 4:heart: 9:club: 5:spade: T:club: 5:club:

      72/2/1.3/31 - 113
  • 3 replies
    • Volrath89
      Volrath89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 2,171
      I'm not sure if I like 3-betting there with AJ, but well I don't have complete info. about your image, CO stats, etc. I guess you knew the loose passive SB was going to call with weaker hands and wanted to isolate him, but the CO also called, so =/

      And well yeah 72/2 is very loose preflop, but do you think he is shoving in a 3 handed pot with air?. I don't think so (his AF is not that high either), so for me is a clear fold on the flop.

      Anyway, let's give him a shove range. I gave him (being very very optimistic) the following range:

      - Every pocket pair
      - Every 9 (yeah even 92o)
      - Almost every 5 and 4
      - Any draw I could think of (23, 67, even A2 A3 because of the overcard...)

      You are paying $15.49 for a pot of $52.48. So, your pot odds are 3.4:1. You need to be ahead in more than 29.5% of the time to make the call profitable. I just opened the equilator, give villain that hand range (which is about 50% of the hands) and:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 29,477 % 28,304 % 2,345 % 69,351 % AJo
      Player 2: 70,523 % 69,351 % 2,345 % 28,304 % 22+, AJs+, A9s, A5s-A2s, KJs+, K9s, K5s-K4s, QJs, Q9s, Q5s-Q4s, J9s, J5s-J4s, T9s, T5s-T4s, 92s+, 85s, 75s+, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, AJo+, A9o, A5o-A2o, KJo+, K9o, K5o-K4o, QJo, Q9o, Q5o-Q4o, J9o, J5o-J4o, T9o, T5o-T4o, 92o+, 85o, 75o+, 65o, 54o, 43o, 32o


      So your call was zero EV (considering rake, -EV) if he is shoving with any made hand (even bottom pair) or any draws and his range should be even tighter considering if was a 3-bet pot, for me its not worth it to risk 15 dollars to find out if he had air or bottom pair =/. I'd have folded.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would fold on the flop, he shouldn´t shove there pure bluff enough times that you can call
      Most of the times he hold some kind of pair
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      I might even consider folding it preflop against 2 PFR. I don't think we are raising for value.

      Best regards,
      Rensu