Anybody know the odds?

    • Djvandal
      Djvandal
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.04.2009 Posts: 115
      This is a bit of a i have to tell someone and a genuine curiosity not sure if this is right forum

      Heres the setup
      playing a table @ NL100

      trash trash trash the whole game
      i managed to stay around even by steals against very tight players but nothing fancy

      abought to give up on the table and while waiting on the button Pocket Rockets
      well table norm and what i had used for steals was 3bet so i 3bet get a raise and a reraise i think pots around $60 flop comes 2 7 10 rainbow I go all in first raiser calls reraiser folds villain has 10 rag turn and river dont help him i take down just over $210 now useually 2x buy in and i get out while the gettings good so i hit sit out but then spot i got 2 more rounds of free cards so i uncheck sitout

      pocket cards dealt KK i just abought shit trying to figure the odds of getting these 2 hands back to back

      Middle position raises, person to my right goes all in pots around 90 so i bite call the All-in He had QQ flop comes king rag rag river turn didnt matter i took down close to $300 in 2 hands back to back!


      now that ive got my story of joy out of the way anybody know the odds of AA then KK next hand ? i am sure its 1 in 220 for the AA but then the odds for KK escape me as well as a formula to calculate them back to back
  • 24 replies
    • bugleboy
      bugleboy
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      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 279
      You have 1/220 chance to get AA and you have the same chance to get KK. So, it's 1/220 x 1/220 = 1/48400.
    • Djvandal
      Djvandal
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      Joined: 27.04.2009 Posts: 115
      thanks Bugleboy
    • bugleboy
      bugleboy
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      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 279
      no problem ;)
    • AussieIan
      AussieIan
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      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 366
      how bout this one then bugleboy if you're the odds wizard.
      AA, followed by AA, followed by KK, followed by Q-10, followed by AA
      I even have the saved hand history to prove it...the only bad thing was that apart from the first hand, eveyone folded to my std raise and i just picked up blinds
    • bugleboy
      bugleboy
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      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 279
      It doesn't happen very often:

      1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (KK) x 1/82 (Q10) x 1/220 (AA) = 1/192089920000
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      your bankroll management is, in one word, non existent

      im taking odds on you posting an thread sometimes soon saying you had a massive downswing, everything came wrong and you went broke because of donkeys
    • AussieIan
      AussieIan
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      Joined: 10.12.2007 Posts: 366
      Originally posted by bugleboy
      It doesn't happen very often:

      1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (KK) x 1/82 (Q10) x 1/220 (AA) = 1/192089920000
      so similar odds to winning lotto....to be honest, i'd happily give those hands back to win lotto :s_biggrin:
    • bugleboy
      bugleboy
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      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 279
      Originally posted by AussieIan
      Originally posted by bugleboy
      It doesn't happen very often:

      1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (KK) x 1/82 (Q10) x 1/220 (AA) = 1/192089920000
      so similar odds to winning lotto....to be honest, i'd happily give those hands back to win lotto :s_biggrin:

      Actually the odds of winning the lottery are much better. For example in Hungary the odds are "just" 1/44,000,000 :D
    • Skalmann
      Skalmann
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      Joined: 26.12.2008 Posts: 234
      Originally posted by AussieIan
      how bout this one then bugleboy if you're the odds wizard.
      AA, followed by AA, followed by KK, followed by Q-10, followed by AA
      I even have the saved hand history to prove it...the only bad thing was that apart from the first hand, eveyone folded to my std raise and i just picked up blinds
      It's 50% chance, DUCY? :P
    • luitzen
      luitzen
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      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      How come you're playing NL100 and you're still silver and how come you're playing NL100 and don't know how to calculate this yourself? Really, it's very simple maths.
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by luitzen
      How come you're playing NL100 and you're still silver and how come you're playing NL100 and don't know how to calculate this yourself? Really, it's very simple maths.
      Odds for going broke in this case are very very big :D .
    • Kimber88
      Kimber88
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.07.2008 Posts: 1,333
      today I had AA, AK, 49s, 23o, 99, 72o, TT, K2o, Q5s, 33, J4o consecutive. I swear. Seriously guys.. What are the odds of that?

      I'd guess not big. But any combination of 7-10 hands are unlikely and I guess about the same chance as winning the lottery :f_biggrin:
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
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      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by luitzen
      How come you're playing NL100 and you're still silver and how come you're playing NL100 and don't know how to calculate this yourself? Really, it's very simple maths.
      How come you people love to criticise others just because he asked a simple question?

      Have you realized that the OP could have just deposited his own money to play? Therefore he's using bankroll management but didn't started playing with just $50 like most people here? (And if he's not following BRM it's his problem and I couldn't care less)

      And don't you realize that a lot of people don't know very simple maths!? And some of this math isn't really needed to play poker (although it certainly helps).

      BTW, the odds above are slightly miscalculated, but since you're SO good at simple maths I'm sure you already noticed that right!? Then I'm gonna let you give him the right answer!
    • luitzen
      luitzen
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      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      Originally posted by Faye6891
      Originally posted by luitzen
      How come you're playing NL100 and you're still silver and how come you're playing NL100 and don't know how to calculate this yourself? Really, it's very simple maths.
      How come you people love to criticise others just because he asked a simple question?

      Have you realized that the OP could have just deposited his own money to play? Therefore he's using bankroll management but didn't started playing with just $50 like most people here? (And if he's not following BRM it's his problem and I couldn't care less)

      And don't you realize that a lot of people don't know very simple maths!? And some of this math isn't really needed to play poker (although it certainly helps).

      BTW, the odds above are slightly miscalculated, but since you're SO good at simple maths I'm sure you already noticed that right!? Then I'm gonna let you give him the right answer!
      I didn't give my opinion, but I'm genuinely interested.
    • StjepanVG
      StjepanVG
      Global
      Joined: 09.05.2009 Posts: 8
      Odss for AA folowed by KK is the same as AA followed by 23 or any other two cards.

      This two events are independent...

      btw ... today.sng... QQ , next hand QQ.....
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Originally posted by bugleboy
      It doesn't happen very often:

      1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (KK) x 1/82 (Q10) x 1/220 (AA) = 1/192089920000
      I should take a look at my high school math books for the precise formula, but you're missing one thing - these events have to happen exactly in this order which makes oddse even worse. In your case the calculation says 'just' what's the possibility of these events to happen, no matter what the order would be. I'm a bit rusty at the moment to come up with the right formula. I just thought I'd mention this since I should be studying at the moment and any excuse not to comes handy. :D
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
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      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by luitzen
      Originally posted by Faye6891
      Originally posted by luitzen
      How come you're playing NL100 and you're still silver and how come you're playing NL100 and don't know how to calculate this yourself? Really, it's very simple maths.
      How come you people love to criticise others just because he asked a simple question?

      Have you realized that the OP could have just deposited his own money to play? Therefore he's using bankroll management but didn't started playing with just $50 like most people here? (And if he's not following BRM it's his problem and I couldn't care less)

      And don't you realize that a lot of people don't know very simple maths!? And some of this math isn't really needed to play poker (although it certainly helps).

      BTW, the odds above are slightly miscalculated, but since you're SO good at simple maths I'm sure you already noticed that right!? Then I'm gonna let you give him the right answer!
      I didn't give my opinion, but I'm genuinely interested.
      The way you put it looks more like an attack though.

      Originally posted by StjepanVG
      Odss for AA folowed by KK is the same as AA followed by 23 or any other two cards.

      This two events are independent...

      btw ... today.sng... QQ , next hand QQ.....
      Actually no it isn't. The odds of being dealt 23 are greater than being dealt KK since you have more 23 combinations than KK combinations.

      Originally posted by Berkstajger
      Originally posted by bugleboy
      It doesn't happen very often:

      1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (AA) x 1/220 (KK) x 1/82 (Q10) x 1/220 (AA) = 1/192089920000
      I should take a look at my high school math books for the precise formula, but you're missing one thing - these events have to happen exactly in this order which makes oddse even worse. In your case the calculation says 'just' what's the possibility of these events to happen, no matter what the order would be. I'm a bit rusty at the moment to come up with the right formula. I just thought I'd mention this since I should be studying at the moment and any excuse not to comes handy. :D
      Actually I hadn't noticed that mistake. :D

      But you're right, he's actually counting all the possible orders for the events to happen. If I'm not mistaken you'd have to divide it by 5! to find the odds of getting these events happenning in this exact order.

      But the odds used are also wrong, what you have to use here for these calculations is 6/1326 = 1/221 instead of 1/220.

      So the odds should be:

      1/221 (AA) * 1/221 (AA) * 1/221 (KK) * 1/82.875 (QT) * 1/221 (AA) * 1/5! = 1/23,723,233,429,545

      If I didn't make any mistakes, this should be it.

      EDIT: As luitzen pointed out below, the calculations are wrong, you have to multiply it 5! to find the odds of these events ocurring in any order (or so I think).

      So here are the right numbers: (I believe)

      1/221 * 1/221 * 1/221 * 1/82.875 * 1/221 = 1/197,693,611,912.875
    • luitzen
      luitzen
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      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      It's the opposite. You have to multiply with 5! to get the possibility that these events occur in any order.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
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      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Well, I'm not sure though since it's been a long time I last studied probability. Gonna take a look into it when I got the time.

      EDIT: Actually I think you're right, did some quick calculations here and it seems to be the opposite.

      EDIT2: Actually, I know I'm not gonna search for this but I did some calculations and I believe you're right, it's the opposite. I'm editing my previous post.
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