[NL2-NL10] NL50 KJo Squeeze.

    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($22.49)
      Hero ($8.50)
      UTG ($10)
      UTG+1 ($19.55)
      UTG+2 ($10)
      MP1 ($60.23)
      MP2 ($10)
      MP3 ($9.87)
      CO ($54.74)
      BTN ($9.25)

      Dealt to Hero J:club: K:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $2, SB calls $1.75, Hero raises to $8.50, BTN raises to $9.25, fold,

      BTN: 9vpip/26 ATS/ 9pfr / 1.6k hands
      SB: 66 vpip/17pfr 109 hands

      :s_thumbsup: ?
  • 9 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Dandycal,

      I would have squeezed this one as well as it gives you a solid EV of 4bb per hand :)

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hey Gerv,

      What values did you use for BTN's calling range and Sb's calling range to arrive at 4bb ev?

      Thanks!
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Button raises/SB calls with : (28% of hands)

      AA-22,AKs-A4s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q8s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T8s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s-53s,43s,AKo-A8o,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo


      Both call Hero's raise: (about 1/8 of the time)


      AA-55,AKs-AJs,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,AKo-AJo,KQo (ie.65% FE )


      Or button folds AND SB calls: (about 2/3 of the time)

      AA-22,AKs-A7s,A5s,KQs-K9s,QJs-Q9s,JTs,T9s,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo (30% FE )


      We take it down about 20% of time PF.

      EV=3/4BB

      If the SB never folds (is villain one of these?) then EV=-1/2BB.

      Using the orignal set of assumptions but with the calling rates roughly halved (and less equity for us when called) you get an EV = 3BB's with KJo.23o is also profitable to play in this case. If the SB never folds then our squeeze is EV neutral with KJo.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I gave him calling range of AT+,KQ+,88+ and thus a FE of like 60-70%

      I found JTs like hands as well as SCs not in his callingrange imo Nunki especially not on Dandy's limit, do you agree?

      - Gerv
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by Nunki
      Button raises/SB calls with : (28% of hands)
      - Why 28% if BTN's ATS is 26%? I guess you meant 26%?
      Originally posted by Nunki
      Both call Hero's raise: (about 1/8 of the time)

      Or button folds AND SB calls: (about 2/3 of the time)

      We take it down about 20% of time PF..
      How did you get to these values? (1/8, 2/3, 20%)
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by Gerv

      I found JTs like hands as well as SCs not in his callingrange imo Nunki especially not on Dandy's limit, do you agree?

      Not too sure whose range and in which spot you're talking about here.


      Originally posted by dandycal
      Originally posted by Nunki
      Button raises/SB calls with : (28% of hands)
      - Why 28%.....?

      Convenience. It is worth bearing in mind that 26% is only an estimate. Besides, using 26% or 28% would makes very little difference to the answers. Most error comes from guesstimates of our FE or not realising that villain steals 25% CO, 40% BU and 11%SB (for example).




      Originally posted by dandycal
      Originally posted by Nunki
      Both call Hero's raise: (about 1/8 of the time)

      Or button folds AND SB calls: (about 2/3 of the time)

      We take it down about 20% of time PF..
      How did you get to these values? (1/8, 2/3, 20%)
      These values are the probability that certain actions are taken in a hand. In my orignal post I was a bit casual in quoting these.

      Edit:

      Probability{BU calls,SB calls}=13%

      P{BU calls, SB folds}=23%

      P{BU folds,SB calls}=46%

      P{all fold}=18%
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hey Nunki,

      Do excuse me for my insistance. I understood what you meant with these values, but I still wonder how you calculated them. For instance, how do you calculate that BTN and SB will call 13%?
    • Nunki
      Nunki
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Originally posted by dandycal
      Hey Nunki,

      Do excuse me for my insistance. I understood what you meant with these values, but I still wonder how you calculated them. For instance, how do you calculate that BTN and SB will call 13%?
      From our supposition of BU and SB's opening strategy we can infer that BU will have a hand strong enough to call approx. 36% of the time. If the BU calls then the SB will have a hand that is strong enough to overcall about 36% of the time.

      P{BU AND SB call}=0.36*0.36=13%

      The 36% is very tedious to get a hold of unless you have some sort of software to count for you. I wrote a Holdem simulator/evaluator (much much slower than PokerStove) which I use on problems like this so that I can directly keep tabs on how often each event (or combination of events) occurs. I'd be surprised if you couldn't find a user-friendly program on the web somewhere that could do this for you.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
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      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Ok, thanks. I got it now. :)