[NL20-NL50] NL25SH 99 vs fish

    • silent21
      silent21
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      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($24.75)
      BB ($24.69)
      UTG ($41.44)
      UTG+1 ($44.64)
      CO ($23.65)
      Hero ($52.46)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: 9:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.85, fold, Hero calls $0.85, fold, fold,

      FLOP ($2.05) 3:diamond: 2:club: 5:club:

      UTG+1 bets $1.65, Hero calls $1.65,

      TURN ($5.35) 3:diamond: 2:club: 5:club: J:heart:

      check, check,

      RIVER ($5.35) 3:diamond: 2:club: 5:club: J:heart: 7:spade:

      UTG+1 bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50,

      villain is 44/24 2.6af 160h
  • 18 replies
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      I like your line, you have a weak made hand and can get to sd cheaply.
    • BloodyB
      BloodyB
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      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,113
      bet turn: u dont want to give a free card, and u are betting for free sd
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      No, I don't agree with that. U don't need to protect for everything that can float around. Villains range is likely to be just 2 overs, which gives him 6 outs, so about 12% to hit. Forthermore with these stats villain looks like someone who's going to put in a bluf on the river, or call with a marginal hand. These 2 facts combined are reasons to check turn and call or bet river.

      If u bet the turn, there are almost no hands that u beat that will call, u just make him fold his 6 outer or gutshot and avoid giving him a chance to bluff. In other words, you won't make money when you have the best hand.

      Imo if you bet the turn here, you're turning your hand in a bluf. In this case you do have a hand, so it would be a total waste.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Philipvw
      No, I don't agree with that. U don't need to protect for everything that can float around. Villains range is likely to be just 2 overs, which gives him 6 outs, so about 12% to hit. Forthermore with these stats villain looks like someone who's going to put in a bluf on the river, or call with a marginal hand. These 2 facts combined are reasons to check turn and call or bet river.

      If u bet the turn, there are almost no hands that u beat that will call, u just make him fold his 6 outer or gutshot and avoid giving him a chance to bluff. In other words, you won't make money when you have the best hand.

      Imo if you bet the turn here, you're turning your hand in a bluf. In this case you do have a hand, so it would be a total waste.
      that kind of player won´t fold there any pair to your turn bet
      I´d also bet turn for value and if he calls then also consider betting river for value
    • BloodyB
      BloodyB
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      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,113
      its marginal for me to check ont turn for bluff induce, there is too many cards that u dont want to see on the river: 4,T,Q,K,A, maybe a 6 or 5 and any club. U also dont know if villain will bluff with air on river.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Originally posted by Philipvw
      No, I don't agree with that. U don't need to protect for everything that can float around. Villains range is likely to be just 2 overs, which gives him 6 outs, so about 12% to hit. Forthermore with these stats villain looks like someone who's going to put in a bluf on the river, or call with a marginal hand. These 2 facts combined are reasons to check turn and call or bet river.

      If u bet the turn, there are almost no hands that u beat that will call, u just make him fold his 6 outer or gutshot and avoid giving him a chance to bluff. In other words, you won't make money when you have the best hand.

      Imo if you bet the turn here, you're turning your hand in a bluf. In this case you do have a hand, so it would be a total waste.
      that kind of player won´t fold there any pair to your turn bet
      I´d also bet turn for value and if he calls then also consider betting river for value
      On a 5high board it is way more likely that he doesn't have any pair
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Originally posted by BloodyB
      its marginal for me to check ont turn for bluff induce, there is too many cards that u dont want to see on the river: 4,T,Q,K,A, maybe a 6 or 5 and any club. U also dont know if villain will bluff with air on river.
      These cards can hurt you, but like I said, even if he drawing to 2 of them, he still only has 12%(!) except for fdraws and combo's.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      i also think there is pure value in a turn bet, although it's gonna put you into much more difficult spots on the river when he donks it.

      both lines are ok, the only way you make a big mistake is if you take a line you're not comfortable with and cant stand being wrong afterwards (like it tilts you or something), which sucks if you wanna get better.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      i also think there is pure value in a turn bet, although it's gonna put you into much more difficult spots on the river when he donks it.
      I really can't see any value in a turnbet. What hands are going to give you any value? How much of his range consists of these hands?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      perhaps a better way to look at it is this :

      with his AF at 2.6 for 44 vpip, he's aggressive enough that he is always betting a better hand here, so he has a worse made hand or a draw most of the time after he checks the turn. If he was going for a c/r, we would now right there we're no good and can fold easily.

      so the weak part of his range is : 66-88, Ax for a gutshot with or without a small pair, 2 random clubs with or without overs, 2 overs + random stuff that will fold to any action.

      Given that he checked the turn, we aren't at all confident that he'll bluff at the river with those hands if we check behind, since most of them have showdown value, or so he thinks. That doesn't mean he's ready to fold them, since you'd likely float that flop with a lot of your range.

      So yes, he is a dog most of the time and it's not really about protecting our hand. But. Unless he has reason to think you'd bet a missed draw on the river yourself, he's more likely to call a bet on the turn with his weak range than on the river, where missed overs/draws wont put anymore money into the pot.


      Hope that's clear, i'd be glad to continue discuss that if you don't agree, even if i feel that most of the arguing resolves around a precise read on how often he'll bluff missed draws on the river, which we don't really have.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Well, I'm not only hoping that he will bluff the river, but also that he will still call all the hands that he could have called with on the turn wehn you vbet river after he checks (except fdraws).

      Imo:

      Value of turn vbet: some weak hands that he can call
      Value of river vbet: all weak hands that he can call + he can bluff into us - the small amout of equity he has to outdraw.

      In my opinion are there more hands that he can call on the river, bc if u bet on the turn this bet has soms 'leverage'. By which I mean he can fold bc he doesn't want to face a riverbet. If you're on the river, he is sure that he only needs to call that bet to get to sd. It is prolly this part that explains our different approach in the hand.

      So the main difference is the value from a turn vbet that gets payed by the part of his range that is flushdraws as compared to the part of his range with which he'll bluf the river. (I assume that all the other weak hands are as likely to call either a turn or river bet.) Well I say that the fdraws here are less than 20% of his range, so if he bluffs slightly more than 20% of his range on the river, a river call/vbet is better. Which in my experience is a line often used by a 40/20 whatever fish.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Fishes only grasp the concept of leverage on an instinctive level, which is why i don't really give it much thoughts here.



      I think he's calling on the turn with most draws and not betting with all of them as a bluff on the river. We can more or less agree that other hands are as likely to call on the turn and on the river. But some of them will have improved without you being able to fathom it. Any A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, T, Q, K river can only hurt you, because when he donks into you either he's bluffing, or he just rivered you.

      Without a read on his betsizing you're calling blind on the river with a check behind + c/c line, but because he has to be afraid after calling your turn bet that you'll bet/raise the river behind him, i feel you can make a much better decision with a b/f + c/f line.



      On a more general note, i feel that it is way easier to think about his range of hands that beat you so you can fold, than it is to think about the range of hands that you beat so you can get value. From a learning perspective, i'd rather make a mistake by seeking too much value than the opposite.



      I'd like to get Bierbaer's opinion though, i like his posts so far. I'll bump it.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Joined: 28.05.2007 Posts: 578
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      I think he's calling on the turn with most draws and not betting with all of them as a bluff on the river.


      I agree, but he only needs to bluff X% of all the random hands that he won't call with + the missed draws.
      With X% defined as all the hands he calls the turn with, but not the river, in this case the part of his range that are fdraws.

      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      We can more or less agree that other hands are as likely to call on the turn and on the river. But some of them will have improved without you being able to fathom it. Any A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, T, Q, K river can only hurt you, because when he donks into you either he's bluffing, or he just rivered you.

      That is true, but all this just means he has about 12% suckout equity, this implies that he has to bluff slightly more than just X%

      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      Without a read on his betsizing you're calling blind on the river with a check behind + c/c line, but because he has to be afraid after calling your turn bet that you'll bet/raise the river behind him, i feel you can make a much better decision with a b/f + c/f line.


      If you bet the turn, he calls and then suddenly bets the river, you are almost always beat.

      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      On a more general note, i feel that it is way easier to think about his range of hands that beat you so you can fold, than it is to think about the range of hands that you beat so you can get value. From a learning perspective, i'd rather make a mistake by seeking too much value than the opposite.
      I agree. But in this case anything he does makes it crystal clear that you are beat. That's why i said that betting the turn turns your hand into a bluff.
      If he raises the turn, you're beat, if he donks the river, you're beat, if the calls turn and river, you're beat.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      I think he's calling on the turn with most draws and not betting with all of them as a bluff on the river.


      I agree, but he only needs to bluff X% of all the random hands that he won't call with + the missed draws.
      With X% defined as all the hands he calls the turn with, but not the river, in this case the part of his range that are fdraws.
      Another way of saying the same thing, if he bluffs all his missed fdraws we end up with the same gain, if he doesn't betting the turn is better.

      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      We can more or less agree that other hands are as likely to call on the turn and on the river. But some of them will have improved without you being able to fathom it. Any A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, T, Q, K river can only hurt you, because when he donks into you either he's bluffing, or he just rivered you.

      That is true, but all this just means he has about 12% suckout equity, this implies that he has to bluff slightly more than just X%
      That implies he'll be able to correctly valuetown you every time he hits since you're calling anyway, and can just c/f also correctly if he doesnt feel like it or if the river card came something scary for him. Calling a turn bet on a J turn with 88 is one thing, calling a river bet on J turn A river with 88 is another problem.

      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      Without a read on his betsizing you're calling blind on the river with a check behind + c/c line, but because he has to be afraid after calling your turn bet that you'll bet/raise the river behind him, i feel you can make a much better decision with a b/f + c/f line.


      If you bet the turn, he calls and then suddenly bets the river, you are almost always beat.
      Which means you can correctly fold and be happy about it.

      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      On a more general note, i feel that it is way easier to think about his range of hands that beat you so you can fold, than it is to think about the range of hands that you beat so you can get value. From a learning perspective, i'd rather make a mistake by seeking too much value than the opposite.
      I agree. But in this case anything he does makes it crystal clear that you are beat. That's why i said that betting the turn turns your hand into a bluff.
      If he raises the turn, you're beat, if he donks the river, you're beat, if the calls turn and river, you're beat.
      If he does nothing we got more value out of worse hands, if he does anything we didnt lose money since we were planning on calling a bluff bet anyway, but we wont loose anything more because he turned his hand's strength face up for us.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      I think he's calling on the turn with most draws and not betting with all of them as a bluff on the river.


      I agree, but he only needs to bluff X% of all the random hands that he won't call with + the missed draws.
      With X% defined as all the hands he calls the turn with, but not the river, in this case the part of his range that are fdraws.
      Another way of saying the same thing, if he bluffs all his missed fdraws we end up with the same gain, if he doesn't betting the turn is better.
      No, you are missing the point, or I didn't make it that clear.
      Difference in scenario turnbet with riverbet:
      Lost value with riverbet:
      We agreed that the only hands he will call on the turn and not the river are approx the bare fdraws. This is the value that the riverbet scenario will miss.
      Added value with riverbet:
      He can bluff with all the hands with which he would not call a turnbet or riverbet, these include missed fdraw, as well as other random cards.
      My point is that the frequency that he bluffs on the river with all these hands which exceeds just the missed fdraws only needs to be higher than the % of his range on the turn that consist of fdraws. If that is the case, it cancels out for the lost value.
      Additionaly villain is likely to c/call the river with weaker hands.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Ok, i see what you mean now.

      I think we kinda said all we could say about that hand, it all boils down to how bluffy villain is.

      I will agree that if we've seen him take shots other than a cbet at a pot with air before, your speculative approach might yield more value, because he has a lot more air hands on the turn than weak made hands/draws. That being said, we still have to blindly call a river bet barring another read on betsizing. River is an A, villain pots. Now what ?

      However, i feel like without these small reads, taking a basic b/f line for value on the turn is a more solid way to deal with this situation by taking over control to make more informed decisions. I'm not sure how often we can actually get the extra value from your bluff-inducing line where we're playing blind, as it will likely require sustained play with the villain to find a good calling frequency. Needless to say, most fishes bust out rather quickly. ^^


      Thanks for talking that over with me.
    • Philipvw
      Philipvw
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      Thx for the discussion, your insights were valuable.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      Originally posted by Philipvw
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      I think he's calling on the turn with most draws and not betting with all of them as a bluff on the river.


      I agree, but he only needs to bluff X% of all the random hands that he won't call with + the missed draws.
      With X% defined as all the hands he calls the turn with, but not the river, in this case the part of his range that are fdraws.
      Another way of saying the same thing, if he bluffs all his missed fdraws we end up with the same gain, if he doesn't betting the turn is better.

      He can bluff with all the hands with which he would not call a turnbet or riverbet, these include missed fdraw, as well as other random cards.
      My point is that the frequency that he bluffs on the river with all these hands which exceeds just the missed fdraws only needs to be higher than the % of his range on the turn that consist of fdraws. If that is the case, it cancels out for the lost value.
      Additionaly villain is likely to c/call the river with weaker hands.
      Just to my own experience, when 44/20 calls on that board on the flop, he won´t fold when you barrel on the turn (whatever he holds) and you can´t really expect that villain would bluff/valuebet with worse hands 100% of times on the river.
      So I think it is clear valuebet/fold on the turn, unless you think that villain could c/r off with best, hand, which should almost never happen there.