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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH, AA, aggression from a solid opponent

    • Yuris125
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 375
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:

      Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands)
      MP3 - 18/14/1.8/219, fold to 3bet 50% (4 of 8 hands)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A.
      MP3 raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.2, 3 folds, MP3 calls $0.85.

      Flop: ($2.55) Q, 6, T (2 players)
      MP3 bets $1.60, Hero raises to $4.8, MP3 calls $3.20.

      Turn: ($12.15) J (2 players)
      MP3 bets $6.63(All-In), Hero calls $6.63.

      River: ($25.41) 2 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $25.41.

      Is raise on the flop correct, or should I just call?
      Should I fold at any point? He can play this way with a top pair or a lower pp, but also with a set. On the turn, broadway is also possible...

  • 3 replies
    • maya1984
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      a donk bet stat could be useful.

      pf and flop are fine.

      So he donks again putting himself all in. his line is super strong.
      You should start thinking what he is second donking with on the turn.TT and QQ are in his 3bet calling range. + This TAG is not going broke here that quickly with only a pair. This should be a fold.
    • Yuris125
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 375
      Well, he usually is the preflop aggressor, so there are no reliable donk-bet stats. Also since his first preflop action was raise, HEM doesn't consider this flop bet to be a donk-bet, it counts it as a c-bet. However, of 4 3bet pots I saw him in, this was the only time he didn't play check/fold. So definitely a fold on the turn
      Thanks Maya :) He did have TT
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Nah, it's totally fine to go broke there, don't raise on flop if you don't want to go broke, if you are so sure then just Call few streets and make the lay down on further streets. For example if you give him this range:


      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 56,520% 56,406% 0,228% 43,366% AA
      Player 2: 43,480% 43,366% 0,228% 56,406% KK-QQ, TT, 66, AQs, KQs, QTs, AQo, KQo, QTo

      As you can see we are having pretty good equity against him, so I don't really see why we should fold in this 3bet pot. Also sometimes we can give even further range for him when he is donking a lot on such flops (even in 3bet pot). Just note him down and try to catch his moves. Nice hand, well played.

      Best regards,