I was just a currious as you what the biggest downswings you guys have had playing 9 seated S&G's. Both number of BI's & number of tournements.
Iv just finished enjoying a 220 tournement spell of ROI been 25%...unfortunatley all good things come to a end...lol. It's cool though, aslong as i keep playing well as i am. I havnt the biggest experience with S&G varriance as i was previously a cash game player 2/3 maybe 4 months ago so i'll lookforward to hearing what you all have to say.
Here is a graph showing to probability of having a 100BI downswing for ROIs of 5% and 10% (look at the line near the horizontal axis and the one near the line for 20BI downswing at 15% ROI). You will see that, even with only a 5% ROI, it takes a HUGE sample size to have a reasonable chance to drop 100BI even once. All credit for the graph goes to Unam1337, of course.
This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by PetterG2: 17.06.2009 23:03.
I'm playing 11$ + 1$ SNG turbos at full tilt. 8 tables, playing successive. I don't have a big samplesize, only about 600 games.
My biggest downer so far is ~ 30 BIs over 200 games. After that I won ~ 50 BIs in like 50-60 games. Today I manage to get OOTM 18 games in a row (some of them was because of semitilt and some misclicks in important hands.) After that I manage to get some first and second place finishes
So my experiece so far is that it is very swingy and it's EXREAMLY important to stay focused while playing, manage to control tilt and constantly trying to find leaks. ALOT of money can disappair if you can't do this.
This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by miskokvo: 17.06.2009 23:07.
i dont like articles counting probability of downswing .. they are bulshi..t IMO ..
there is no vay how you can count human mistakes/tilt ... every player is diferent ...every player is afected by diferent aspects like BR,state-origin(economy etc)
for someone can be 100$ pocket money for someone it is big... you cant calculate exactly chance of having XX downswing because those diferences making this calculation like +- 30% ..and size of downswing also depends of how many tables you play ...
for eg im playing 12 MTT sng ... if i had bad day ... im down 30Bi ... I cant just stand up and stop play coz im having still 10 tables opened and my play is crushed by tilt/bad beats ading to my 30BI downswing another 5-10BI..
so fuk those article (sry guys whos writed it) ...every player is diferent ... you should play play play ..gain you experience and sample size and you will see ho big downswing you can expecetd...
simple: i bet you that Phill Ivey downswing is smaller than downswing of Mike Matusov (who is often afeced on tilt) or other good but weaker players
Originally posted by miskokvo
cyzo ... try to think ... watch boku87 chalange and you will see it that downer is hugely afected by number of tables
I have no need to expend effort on thought. I am aware of Boku's challenge and still come to the conclusion that the number of tables played at one time cannot be correlated to the size of a downswing. Anyone playing the number of sngs he played, one at a time, with ~his ROI could hit a similar downswing.
I do not think that you can generalize and say that a player who plays more tables at once is more apt to make unwarranted mistakes, therefore lowering his ROI and leading to a larger downswing. If I can get as high an ROI playing sets of 30 as some guy who plays sets of 5 24 hours a day, and we both put in the same number throughout the course of a month, I would not be willing to bet that I would, on average, have larger downswings. Variance and EV exhibit memorylessness. It does not matter when they are played as long as the same number are put in.
if guy A has played 100games with roi of 10% = 10$ eg
if guy B has played 200 games with roi of 5% =10$ eg ...
and their profit looses will be same at long run ... but i can guarante you that guy A will have biggest downstreet like 20BI and guy B like 25Bi ... but at the end they will be same profitable but guy B will have biger swings