[NL20-NL50] Nl50Sh 99

    • Katavich
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      $0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
      6 players
      Converted at weaktight.com

      Hero (UTG) ($52.50)
      UTG+1 ($45.98)
      CO ($51.75)
      BTN ($96.80)
      SB ($70.05)
      BB ($26.15)

      Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG 9:heart: 9:diamond:
      Hero raises to $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

      Flop: 8:spade: 7:heart: 7:spade: ($7.25, 4 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $4.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $10.75, BB folds, Hero???

      villain is 18/13/2.4/24, 1.1k hands
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Taggish guy overcalls preflop after a fish and a tag utg open-raiser, he a rather large range. He would probably squeeze you with TT+ and AQ+, so we're looking at

      22-99, Axs, suited connectors, broadways, maybe even connectors and some suited 1-gappers.

      On that flop, he could do that with 77-99, 87, T9, 65, any 2 spades, 7x, maybe 8x for protection. A read on the BB would help, he looks fishy, i don't expect a tag to raise a paired board into a halfstacked loose passive fish and the preflop aggressor with a marginal hand or air, committing himself against him in the process, unless he knows you know it looks super strong.

      So 99 is unlikely because you have it, 77 88 87 have the deck so crushed that i think he would slowplay them, a naked 8x would be pushing it but it's possible. He probably has an OESD, a FD, a combo of the two, all of that with or without overcards, or a 7x.
      Bottom line is it looks strong and even if you're ahead now you're mostly flipping if the money goes in, and you won't like many turn cards : a spade, any overcard, even a 4 is sorta scary.

      Unless you have a read on his him to suggest otherwise, i would just muck it out of position here, it's not worth the trouble.

      Hope it helps.
    • Katavich
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      very good thinking tarmairlarace. If he has FD then he probably has 2 overcards and we are flipping, with OESD its 60-40 and with 7x I am way behind so its the best to muck it. thx