[NL2-NL10] ako nl200

    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $2(BB) Full Tilt
      SB ($83.60)
      BB ($125)
      UTG ($155)
      UTG+1 ($215)
      UTG+2 ($195)
      MP1 ($98.90)
      MP2 ($200)
      CO ($51.65)
      Hero ($46.80)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: A:diamond:

      UTG calls $2, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $9, SB calls $8, fold, UTG calls $7,

      FLOP ($29) J:club: T:diamond: 5:heart:

      SB bets $22, UTG folds, Hero raises to $37.80 (AI), SB calls $15.80,

      TURN ($104) J:club: T:diamond: 5:heart: 5:spade:



      RIVER ($104) J:club: T:diamond: 5:heart: 5:spade: 8:diamond:


      33/12 70 hands

      af 2/2/2
  • 4 replies
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I like it. My guess is we have 7 outs most often. Sometimes more, sometimes only the GS outs. I'd be interested to know if he's had a tendency to donk in his first 70 hands so we know If our outs are slightly discounted or not.

      Its kind of a big donk too. I'd definately note what he bets this big with, keeping the future in mind. Its possible we could get quite a nice read on him if we see him make a smaller bet in the future in a similar situation.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      With such a bigger stack, I prefer to just muck it. AJ/AT/KT/KJ/JT/any PP/55 has you pretty much beat leaving you behind with <25% Equity.

      Especially with 70 hands, it is more guessing than knowing for sure if he bluffDonks or Donks with a made hand. I prefer non-gambling spots wit Ace high

      Only if you have 10 clean outs, you can make the direct push +EV since the donk means you have 0% fe so you get 1.68 to one to shove

      - Gerv
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by Gerv
      With such a bigger stack, I prefer to just muck it.
      Interesting. What size of stack would you shove it with versus this 70 hand sample?

      If this wasn't a family pot I would be inclined to think this was normally a "trying to steal the pot OOP" move from SB vs a possible MP3 Steal.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Up to a maximum of 24bb so I was wrong with preferring to muck it IF we can count 10 outs as clean.

      But I pretty muck think this aint a mp3 steal but more an isolate. Furthermore I think/speculate that he often does this dBetting with made hands or at least better than an AceKing hand.

      Once again, im not really fond of gambling here by shoving and hoping your 10 outs are clean ;(

      - Gerv