[NL2-NL10] Nl 50 (A,Jo) from CO - 3bet by BB

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,400
      Known players:

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:club: , J:spade:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BU folds, SB raises to $4.50, BB folds, Hero raises to $7.75 (All-In), SB calls $3.25.

      Flop: ($16.00) Q:diamond: , Q:heart: , 5:club:
      Turn: ($16.00) 6:diamond:
      River: ($16.00) A:spade: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $16.00

      Some help with this hand? After 250 hands, 3bet stat: 6% (4 out of 65).
      My equity against 6% range is 37.6%; so not certain whether I should fold or push here? Is BB's 3bet range to steal ever loose enough to go broke in this spot (my remaining stack to raise ratio is 4.2:1 so standard strat would be fold, I guess).
  • 4 replies
    • maya1984
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      check his 3bet% from SB. It would be < 6%. this should be an easy fold.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,400
      well, in fact 3bet% from SB is 7% for this player (but on 1 out of 14 hands - so not a good sample at all).

      But can you explain why 3bet from SB would be lower than average 3bet?

      Is it because, by time play reaches SB, there will be more action on average than if he were in MP - so he needs a better hand on average to 3bet?

    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      SB looks pretty tight, I'd fold AJ over here. But if you were on BTN or SB and villain on BB, I'd push AJ.

      Since you are open raising from CO, the ideal stats would actually be Fold SB to steal. But you need a really large sample to take such stats into account.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Tim,

      You need 40.2% to be break-even and only against a 88+,AT+,KQ (8-9% range) you are playing +EV.

      Moreover the 75% BBvsSteal is invalid since you only got 250 hands on him therefore I look at this VPIP/PFR and as Dandy told you; those are very tight.

      Folding is the best option but if you have a read on him, pushing can also be justified.

      Best regards,