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[NL2-NL10] Nl 50 (9,9) 1 overcard; passive plyr 3bet

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $9.00
      MP2:
      $46.85

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9:diamond: , 9:spade:
      Hero raises to $2.00, MP2 calls $2.00, 5 folds.

      Flop: ($4.75) 8:heart: , 4:spade: , Q:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, MP2 raises to $6.00, Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $13.75

      Given aggression factor (which I didn't check at time), ok to fold here?
  • 5 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      22 hands don't reflects his real AF. bet 2/3 of the pot/fold against this unknown is a standard play.
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Sorry; I should have clarified my post. Obviously correct to c-bet 2/3. However, given the re-raise, it also seems correct to fold as played (also a standard play as you say).

      I mentioned AF because villain has seen 18 flops out of 22 hands therefore seems to be very loose; however, with AF of only 1 it seems reasonable to assume that he's played those 18 flops passively. If that's a fair assumption, it makes it less likely that the 3bet is a bluff, I think? Do you think one should never take AF into account with 82% vpip, even with small hand sample?

      Thanks
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Tim64
      Do you think one should never take AF into account with 82% vpip, even with small hand sample?Thanks
      You should take the AF into account regardless to his vpip%. all I'm saying it won't be that reliable since the sample is too small.
      I would actually take into consideration his fold to c-bet% rather then his AF when I'm thinking on c-betting here.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Why not check his WTS? 42% is quite a lot.

      As the overcard is a Q, I'm quite tempted to call his raise. Either that or pushing directly on flop. Villain looks like such a fish.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Tim,

      Looking at this WTS, he is definitly a calling station that calls you with overcards and all kinds of hands which you are way ahead against.

      Additionally, you have to bet like 40-42% of your stack as a C-bet OOP against Fish. Because of that I am leaning towards a direct shove since his F2cbet% will be low but this is just speculating.

      As Im OOP i tend to shove more to negate my position.
      Best regards,
      Gerv