NL 10 SSS Variance

    • dachinkster
      dachinkster
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 4
      Im playing NL 10 FR SSS on mansion, and started off +8BI in 2 days, so was feeling quite good. in the next three days im -12BI (-5BI from 5 days ago). Whilst I admit on the 1st half of day 3 I was playing on tilt and made some stupid moves, ive played the last two and half days to a strict SSS and am still haemorraging money. What kind of variance can I expect from SSS, as im worried that if the next three days bring another -12BI loss ill be bankrupt. Ive lost my last like 5 all ins (JJ lost to QQ, QQ lost to KK, AA lost to AK, AK lost to JJ,KK lost to AA) and I just dont see an end in sight at the moment. I havent gone on tilt, as it's pretty hard to do if I adhere to the starting hand chart as I have, but I just continue to lose
  • 13 replies
    • dachinkster
      dachinkster
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 4
      in the 20 mins since i posted this, my kk just ran into AA and my QQ lost to AK...
    • MrPavlos
      MrPavlos
      Global
      Joined: 12.02.2009 Posts: 553


      First week,looks swingy but as i believe if ur able to handle some rought times u will make it.Last 2 days had a 2k hands downswing where i was losing anything.Today had a 500hands + session.Keep up,review(REALLY IMPORTANT),and fight tilt,thats all u need to do to go to profitland :f_biggrin:
    • sm112
      sm112
      Black
      Joined: 14.10.2008 Posts: 213
      I have lost 15 BI over 1000 hands. Just keep playing according to strategy and you will hit a heater sooner or later. I also had 30k hands break-even stretch, but it was partly because of occasional tilting sessions. So without tilting you should eventually make profit, just have patience.
    • dachinkster
      dachinkster
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 4
      yeah i hope you are right because my current stretch has now just hit -17BI, i am literally losing to everything at the moment, my AK lost to JQ and then to A3. cant win for love nor money. Just about managing to stay away from tilting, but its bloody frustrating folding away for hours, getting a hand and then getting sucked out on. Ah well that's poker I suppose Ill just persevere until my fortunes change..... or I go bankrupt...
    • mafaz
      mafaz
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2007 Posts: 222
      NL 10 that hard ?

      Just pick fishier tables. Doesnt mean that your AA wont loose against some q/10s but you will win more. While running into a higher pp with your 1010/jj/qq/kk doesnt quite often doesnt surprise me on NL50 its quite strange you run into these that often on NL10. Of course it may happen a lot on NL10 also but there should be a lot of hands where you are a huge favourite with your AK vs KQ or jj vs 55 or any lower pocket. I dunno i dont play on mansion but i cant believe that NL10 there is so tight.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Silver
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,119
      I am also playing NL10 on mansion and 9 stack below 0. I played FL before and thought it is swingy, but now I see NL, SSS at least, is swingy too.
    • Heffron89
      Heffron89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2009 Posts: 813
      SSS on Ipoker is bad imo, atleast like 3-6 SSS'ers on each NL10 FR table
    • mafaz
      mafaz
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2007 Posts: 222
      Originally posted by Heffron89
      SSS on Ipoker is bad imo, atleast like 3-6 SSS'ers on each NL10 FR table
      you cant play sss profitaby if there is more than 2 sss'ers on the table.... on fulltilt i even leave such tables sometimes when there is other 2 shortstackers.
    • s1ndr0me
      s1ndr0me
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.01.2009 Posts: 131
      i'll agree that SSS is way harder on ipoker than on stars. its hard enough getting a seat on ipoker let alone a fishy table.

      Seems everyone on ipoker is a PS member and is trying thier hand at SSS.

      I'd recommend getting some money in stars.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Silver
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,119
      Originally posted by Heffron89
      SSS on Ipoker is bad imo, atleast like 3-6 SSS'ers on each NL10 FR table
      But most of them aren't playing SSS, so it is not that bad :)
    • Heffron89
      Heffron89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2009 Posts: 813
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Originally posted by Heffron89
      SSS on Ipoker is bad imo, atleast like 3-6 SSS'ers on each NL10 FR table
      But most of them aren't playing SSS, so it is not that bad :)
      Oh, I didn't know that hehe I was going to try but when I looked some tables I saw like 5 peopels min buyin. Maybe I should try some SSS there then ;=)
    • knb22
      knb22
      Gold
      Joined: 29.04.2009 Posts: 212
      I've experienced much of the same as thread starter, as I'm also doing NL10 SSS on Mansion. However, as heffron89 states, table selection is tricky, especially during daytime. I'm having a hard time finding tables with less than 3-4 short stackers, and a lot of them are actually using the SSS. Seems like the best time to play is late evening/night (european time)..
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Variance on the SSS:
      If you model the short stack strategy as a series of coinflips that is designed to give a 60% edge to the short stacker you can see that in the short run the variance will be particularly high.

      One would not be particularly surprised to flip a coin four times and to come up with 3 heads. This is the nature of the SSS and in the long run if you are playing correctly it will show profit.

      Of course there are many ways that you can increase the odds above 60/40 especially against weak opponents and there are even more ways that you can completely wreck the strategy.

      Best of luck and just hope you don't go bust before it tends to the profitable side :D