[NL2-NL10] NL10 77 all-in pre flop

    • dcmcfyl
      dcmcfyl
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 28
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP1:
      $1.85
      Hero:
      $2.00

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 7:spade: , 7:diamond:
      UTG2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.40, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00 (All-In), 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.45 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Flop: ($3.85) 5:diamond: , T:heart: , T:diamond:
      Turn: ($3.85) Q:club:
      River: ($3.85) 8:heart: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $3.85


      This guy had 18 pfr, and I had observed that he would often fold his raises to a re-raise. I figured I could get him to fold 88-TT, so the only hands I was worried about were JJ-AA which were a very small part of his range, and thus with the fold equity + equity vs his calling range I thought pushing was a profitable move. Was this descion correct?
  • 7 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      You forgot about the most important stat here: call to3bet pf%
      If we ignore it you get:
      (I'm assuming this guy is not a sss player.)

      18% pfr: 66+, A5s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+
      which you got 51% equity against.

      If we narrow his range to 6%( let's assume his 3bet calling range his:6%)
      6%:88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo
      which you got 33.7% equity against

      Ev(shove) = 2/3*0.4$ - (1/3)*(2$*0.325) > 0 :)

      Now you can use his call to 3bet pf% to determine the your EV as a nice exercise.

      Good Luck.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hey guys,

      After only 122 hands you can't take into account stats like Fold to 3bet. 77 is no good against an MP1 raise, even if his PFR were 20%. Remember there are still 2 players to act behind you, and they must also be taken into consideration. With TT+, AQ+ I would push here.


      I believe found a couple of mistakes in your equation Maya. You forgot to take into considerartion the costs, and you must add the 2 terms of the equation.

      EV = FE*(pot1) + (1-FE)*(totalpot*equity - costs)

      so EV = 2/3*0.4$ + (1/3)*($4*0.325 - $2)
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      **deleted**
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      As this is NL10 I'm going to keep it simple and look it up;

      The adjusting the reraise range article has 77 falling into the marginal 3bet category if the 18PFR raiser is in MP2 or MP3, if however as in this case the raiser is in MP1 it says that 99 and above is 3bettable and even 99 is marginal.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/802/
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by dandycal
      I believe found a couple of mistakes in your equation Maya. You forgot to take into considerartion the costs, and you must add the 2 terms of the equation.

      EV = FE*(pot1) + (1-FE)*(totalpot*equity - costs)

      so EV = 2/3*0.4$ + (1/3)*($4*0.325 - $2)
      Both calculations are the same. The equity in the second term in your equation should be 0.337 which gives us:
      2/3*0.4 + 1/3*(4$*0.337-2$)= 0.049

      Mine is: ( 2/3*0.4$ + (1/3)*( 2$*(0.337-0.663) ) ) = 0.049 too. :)

      In this case (since the sample is small and we can keep things simple as we are playing NL10) I would stick to DaPhunk's suggestion.
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      @ Maya: Oh, now I see what you meant in the first equation. :]
      Perhaps it's best to keep to the common format when posting, to make it easier for everyone to see, especially beginners? Or maybe it's just me who is used to a different notation :D
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      As this is NL10 I'm going to keep it simple and look it up;

      The adjusting the reraise range article has 77 falling into the marginal 3bet category if the 18PFR raiser is in MP2 or MP3, if however as in this case the raiser is in MP1 it says that 99 and above is 3bettable and even 99 is marginal.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/no-limit/802/
      This , 77 is quite marginal without a decent sample on Opponents

      - Gerv