[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH, AK, steal situation vs a tight opponent

    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $23.85
      CO:
      $14.77
      BU:
      $9.90
      SB(Hero):
      $10.00
      BB:
      $9.35

      Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands)
      BB - 10/7/20.0/347, 3bet 3.1%

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K.
      2 folds, BU calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.5, BB raises to $1.7, BU folds, Hero calls $1.20.

      Flop: ($3.50) 9, 9, A (2 players)
      Hero checks, BB checks.

      Turn: ($3.50) K (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.00, BB raises to $7.65(All-In), Hero calls $5.65.

      River: ($18.80) J (2 players)

      Final Pot: $18.80.

      Hi,
      Here I'm pretty sure I should've folded preflop to his 3bet unless I had KK+. Right?

      Thanks!
  • 11 replies
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      You might fold or you might 4bet/push preflop. I don't mind 4betting at all, he's likely to fold AK and maybe even QQ if he's such a nit.
    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      I'm not sure I like 4betting... if he continues after a 4bet, he definitely has KK+, and I have about 23% equity. And as far as I understand, 4bet/fold is never a good line. So I preferred to call IP, hoping to get some more money from him if I hit...
      Even so, should've folded turn, he wouldn't check behind on the flop and raise turn with QQ or JJ
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Yuris125
      I'm not sure I like 4betting... if he continues after a 4bet, he definitely has KK+, and I have about 23% equity. And as far as I understand, 4bet/fold is never a good line. So I preferred to call IP, hoping to get some more money from him if I hit...
      Even so, should've folded turn, he wouldn't check behind on the flop and raise turn with QQ or JJ
      You are OOP...
      This guy is a SH nitt. OOP I'm just folding my AK against this guy. Calling a 3bet OOP with 100BB is a bad move, especially with AK.
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      You can't make a lot of money even if you hit here because either he has AA and you're beat anyway, or if he has JJ-KK and an ace shows up he won't continue with his hand.
    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Yeah, thought I was the BU for a moment...
      So it's a fold, just as I thought
      Maybe a 4bet of about 2.5 his 3bet, ~4.2, and fold to a shove? Try to get him off QQ-? Or is it -EV anyway?
    • STR82ACE
      STR82ACE
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.10.2008 Posts: 389
      Originally posted by maya1984
      Originally posted by Yuris125
      I'm not sure I like 4betting... if he continues after a 4bet, he definitely has KK+, and I have about 23% equity. And as far as I understand, 4bet/fold is never a good line. So I preferred to call IP, hoping to get some more money from him if I hit...
      Even so, should've folded turn, he wouldn't check behind on the flop and raise turn with QQ or JJ
      You are OOP...
      This guy is a SH nitt. OOP I'm just folding my AK against this guy. Calling a 3bet OOP with 100BB is a bad move, especially with AK.
      Am I missing something here? Folding?
      Yes, I am missing it...sorry....didn't see the stats.
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      If you 4bet you have to call his shove even if you know he continues only with KK+, odds are too good to fold.

      And even if he's tight it doesn't mean THAT much - he's 3betting around 3% which means something like JJ+, AK. Now it just depends how much of his range he folds to our 4bet. If we can get him to fold AK, JJ-QQ it's definately +EV to 4bet/push. Fold is a better option though if you don't like the variance.
    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      I'm not sure I have good enough odds to continue if I 4bet to $4.2 and he pushes. I have to call $5.15 into a $13.55 pot, I need 28% equity for it to be mathematically correct, but I have only 23% against KK+. And he advocated folding QQ to a 4bet in table chat after this hand, so it's very likely that his pushing range is exactly KK+
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      Let's assume that he 3bets there with JJ+, AK.

      He can have AA in 3 combinations (you block one A), KK in 3 combinations (you block one K), QQ and JJ in 6 combinations both and AK in 9 combinations. It's 27 combinations of hands.

      Let's assume he folds JJ-QQ and AK to your 4-bet of 4.5$

      So you are betting additional 4$ to win 2.3$ that's already in the pot in 21 of 27 times which equals 77% of the time.

      On the other hand, if he continues (in 23% of the cases), you're risking to lose your entire stack of 10$ with the probability of 76,8%.

      Summing up: 2.3$*0.77 - 10$*0.23*0.768 + 10*0.23*0.232 = 1,771 - 1,7664 + 0.5336 = 0,5382$ which means it's +EV. If he can 3bet with worse hands from time to time (everyone can) it's even more profitable. It doesn't include rake though.

      I don't really know if these calculations are correct, I was just curious myself :P
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      It would be interesting to know what your stats were as well. He's aggressive so a 3bet to someone who's ATS is obviously high is a plausible move to pick up some chips with a marginal hand from a weaker player who seems to be stealing often.

      I could see him 3 betting with mid pockets (88+), suited connectors, suited A's and hands like KQo even. If you add those hands to his range, then couldn't you get the equity you need to 4bet/call preflop?

      I like the 4bet line - I think at least it doesn't make us look so weak to the player to the left. I'm wondering if filtering stats to show opponents 3bet percentage from the SB might be useful. If villain has 7% PFR from all positions, and 3% three bets then it indicates to me that villain three bets a lot of those raises. I think it also makes future blind steals easier by not backing down and keeps your image at the SH table.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Yuris125
      Yeah, thought I was the BU for a moment...
      So it's a fold, just as I thought
      Maybe a 4bet of about 2.5 his 3bet, ~4.2, and fold to a shove? Try to get him off QQ-? Or is it -EV anyway?
      Sorry for responding just now, I didn't notice your question. please check the "Advise the judge of taking another look at this thread" box when you have further questions.

      If you 4bet with the intension of folding to a shove you are turning your hand into a bluff which is imo really unnecessary against this guy.
      flatting against him with QQ is ok but you need to be careful post-flop.