[NL2-NL10] NL JJ against EP raise+caller

    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($68.92)
      BB ($11.70)
      UTG ($31.24)
      UTG+1 ($17.88)
      UTG+2 ($52.34)
      MP1 ($8.91)
      MP2 ($13.40)
      MP3 ($49.69)
      CO ($8)
      Hero ($9.25)

      Dealt to Hero J:diamond: J:spade:

      UTG raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP3 calls $2, fold, Hero raises to $9.25 (AI),

      UTG: 14/9 2.2k hands Fold3bet 75%, OR EP 7%
      MP3: 9/8 6.6k hands Call Raise 0%

      MP3's call was very suspicious. If MP3 had a looser vpip I believe the push would be very easy here, since pushing JJ against EP raise (10%pfr) is ok.
  • 5 replies
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      This is a spot where I think I have a leak because I would fold. I think I have a 52.9% Equity against UTG's overall openraising ranging range in this spot and stray from the high variance but likely +EV play by folding even with The ColdCallers Deadmoney in the pot.

      I push AKs and QQ+

      What is MP's 3bet%? Its possibly he just wants to play postflop with a hand like AQ or AK, maybe calling a medium pocketpair for set value.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      UTG OR EP 7% = a fold with JJ, now it becomes interesting with a coldcalling Reg.

      Can we define him as dead money or not? If you think not because the Stats say so, then I simply fold because JJ is at like the bottom of his range!

      I prefer to muck it, if the coldcaller was a Fish then you are break-even assuming an equity of 36% + FE of 30% so I muck that one as well

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      shove it, shove it (my in-depth analysis)
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by Gerv
      UTG OR EP 7% = a fold with JJ, now it becomes interesting with a coldcalling Reg.

      Can we define him as dead money or not? If you think not because the Stats say so, then I simply fold because JJ is at like the bottom of his range!

      I prefer to muck it, if the coldcaller was a Fish then you are break-even assuming an equity of 36% + FE of 30% so I muck that one as well

      Best regards,
      Gerv
      I can only expect the CC to be set-mining or trapping with some monster. By his stats we can tell that he rarely coldcalls. So I don't think it's realistic to consider him dead money.

      Though if the CC was not maniac loose neither a tight caller but rather a 15% cc range with about 35% FE, it seems the situation becomes profitable.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Well that's true but then I muck it even faster since in 2 ways you cannot be profitably with JJ.
      1) oR 7% EP = push with QQ+,AKs
      2) Reg who rarely coldcalls thus you are not sure if he does it with >QQ or low-med PPs

      - Gerv