Best of ... Sample Hands - Part IV (Full Ring/10 max)

    • Stefan1000
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      These 3 hands focus on odds and outs and implied/reverse odds.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J:diamond: , A:spade:
      [color:#FF0000]Hero raises[/color], UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, [color:#666666]5 folds[/color], BB calls.

      Flop: (8.40 SB) Q:diamond: , 6:diamond: , 8:diamond: [color:#0000FF](4 players)[/color]
      BB checks, [color:#FF0000]Hero bets[/color], [color:#FF0000]UTG+2 raises[/color], MP1 calls, BB folds, Hero folds.

      We have AJo and raises from early position according to the SHC. 2 opponents call cold and the BB calls too. The flop brings a 3 and we now the 3rd nut flush draw, a backdoor straight draw, and an overcard.
      It is almost always correct to make a continuation bet against two or even three opponents. We sometimes have the best hand here and sometimes the best flush draw, and we'll be able to drive out small pairs without a flush draw with our raise. This is what makes betting the flop correct.
      Now the UTG+2 raises and MP1 calls it cold.
      What do we do? We have 9 outs on the flush and 3 for top pair, the backdoor straight draw can be discounted on the one-suited board. 12 outs with odds of 1:14 should easily do it for a call.

      Still, it's better to fold here directly on the flop.

      UTG+2 is raising us on this scary board after we've raised pre-flop and ploughed through 3 opponents with our flop bet.
      What are his probable hands?
      - he wants to protect the Q with his raise
      - K or A . He's playing his draw aggressively
      - Two pair, set, flush. Pockets are often called cold, as are many suited cards. Since many fish on the lower limit have an overblown fear of flushes on such boards, it's not improbably that we are running into a strong hand (becaues his raise means strength in this case and because he would raise a monster on the flop for protection).
      MP1 calls the raise cold. His hand range is easier to put bounds on;
      Cold calls on boards like this are mostly good flush draws, a K or a A. Other hands seldom produce a cold call after strength has been shown before them.

      So in light of this exact flop action it is
      1. almost certain that we do not have the best hand
      2. almost certain that our outs on the J are worthless
      3. not improbable that our outs on the A are worthless
      4. probable that our outs on the flush are worthless

      When you draw, you must compare the odds and outs. For these odds you must not only look at pot size but also consider whether you will finish the action and how likely it is that a raise will slip in behind you. Determining the outs is more difficult.

      Deciding factors are:

      1. How strongly must I discount the outs?
      I can only estimate this if I've already roughly estimated the hand range of the opposition based on the action so far. From there I should deduce how much my outs are worth.

      2. How high are my implied odds/reverse implied odds?
      IO are the bets that you'll get from the opposition if you improve to the best hand. RIO are the bets that You will have to pay if you improve but still fail to have the best hand.
      If the first is higher, it speaks for a call even if the odds don't quite make it.
      If the second is higher, you should tend to try and exit the hand as expediently as possible. (the 2nd best hand is known to be the worst in poker)

      And in this case?

      Our implied odds are not very high. If we hit the A and improve to the best hand, we might get another 2 bets from the Q, but only if no more flush cards drop. If we hit the flush and both opponents don't (small flush draws are unlikely for the opposition), we'll often get no more bets, unless we are called down by a set.
      The reverse implied odds, in contrast, are at least 2 bets in this case because we must get to the showdown regardless of whether we hit the A or the flush, and we might even be raised or else called down.
      So we don't really even want to hit an out in this hand; therefore, we fold directly on the flop.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q:diamond: , K:diamond: .
      [color:#666666]2 folds[/color], [color:#CC3333]Hero raises[/color], [color:#666666]1 folds[/color], MP2 calls, [color:#666666][/color], MP2 calls, [color:#666666]2 folds[/color], Button calls, [color:#666666]2 folds[/color].

      Flop: (7.40 SB) 3:diamond: , 9:club: , T:heart: [color:#0000FF](3 players)[/color]
      [color:#CC3333]Hero bets[/color], MP2 calls, [color:#CC3333]Button raises[/color], Hero calls, MP2 calls.

      Turn: (6.20 BB) 3:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, MP2 checks, [color:#CC3333]Button bets[/color], Hero calls, MP2 calls.

      River: (6.20 BB) 6:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, MP2 checks, [color:#CC3333]Button bets[/color], Hero folds, MP2 folds.

      Here is another hand on odds and outs. We have KQs and raise from early position, getting 2 cold callers. We flop the gutshot to the nuts, a backdoor flushdraw, and 2 overcards. Hero makes his standard continuation bet and gets a call and a raise.

      Now we must consider the odds and outs.

      We have 4 outs to the nut straight with the J. These don't need to be discounted because the board is rainbow and unpaired. Our outs to a backdoor flush also remain intact since it is unlikely that anybody has the backdoor nut flush draw. We can take the full out here.
      Overcard outs can't really be counted at full value since two pair or sets are already possible. How much we discount them depends on how likely such hands are for our opponents.
      After his call, a strong hand from MP2 is unlikely. Button could raise any pair here as we can easily have missed the flop after raising pre-flop. He could also have an OESD, or a hand against which our outs are worth nothing.
      What's good for us is that he will often raise a monster on the turn on such a board. What isn't so good for us is that he could also have hands like TK or TQ that also make our outs worthless. So for the overcards we can take around 3 outs. This is often a good value if it is unclear whether the outs are worth anything or not.

      The implied odds are pretty good for most of our outs.
      This is especially true if we hit a straight, since there are already 2 opponents in the hand who like their cards. If an opponent has a monster, we can really take him to the bank. We'll also get some bets if we end up with a flush. If we make top pair on the turn, we'll get another 1-3 bets from a T (depending on whether we raise and whether villain folds).

      The reverse implied odds are not very high.
      For the flush and the straight they are practically non-existent since we'll almost always have the best hand.
      For the K and the Q though, we need to count at least 2 bets in case we make only the 2nd best hand.

      Both of these speak for a call. It would be bad not to finish the betting round after MP2 merely called. He'll seldom raise behind us.

      The odds of 1:11 are for a call, but we'll usually get 1:12 since there will probably be a call behind us. We easily have enough outs for this.
      We could even call 1:4 here because of the good implied odds, if we were last to act.
      The pott is 7BB on the turn. We have only 7 more outs, since we didn't pick up a flush draw. But we can still call profitably. (after the 3 on the turn, we're even ahead against T9 if we hit a K or a Q).


      Preflop: Hero is SB with K:spade: , J:spade:
      [color:#FF0000]UTG+2 raises[/color], MP1 calls, MP2 calls, [color:#666666]3 folds[/color], Hero calls, [color:#666666]1 folds[/color].

      Flop: (9,00 SB) T:spade: , K:diamond: , 3:diamond: [color:#0000FF](4 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]Hero bets[/color], [color:#FF0000]UTG+2 raises[/color], [color:#FF0000]MP1 3-bets[/color], MP2 calls, Hero folds, [color:#FF0000]UTG+2 caps[/color], MP1 calls.

      Turn: (9,00 BB) 4:heart: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]UTG+2 bets[/color], MP1 calls.

      River: (11,00 BB) 7:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]UTG+2 bets[/color], MP1 calls.

      Final Pot: 13,00 BB.[/quote]

      This hand seems strangely played, but it is well-done.
      We call according to the SHC with KJs from the SB after a raise and 2 cold calls.
      The flop is heavy on draws and brings us a top pair, good kicker, and a backdoor flushdraw.
      We need to protect against straight draws, flush draws, pairs (5 outers) and would also like to see single hands fold since the pot is so big.
      In our position relative to the pre-flop aggressor, we accomplish this with a donk bet. (donk bets on the flop are only used for this purpose, otherwise a check/raise is superior).
      We hope that the PFA raises and protects for us by confronting the field with 2 bets.
      This does happen, but unfortunately the opponents behind him don't fold but make a 3 bet and a cold call.

      It is very unlikely that we are still ahead here.
      The pre-flop aggressor raises even though our donk into the field indicates strength. Then MP1 comes in over the top with his 3 bet on the raise of the pre-flop aggressor, which is a further indication of strength.
      And this is all on a KTX board, which means extreme strength and that we are behind in almost every case. Additionally, there is a coldcaller who will usually be sitting on a flushdraw.

      We have 6 outs (KK, JJJ, backdoor flush) and will get 17:2 for a call. This would be enough, but we must still discount them and consider the IO/RIO.

      We have to discount our outs massively. The action, as I've said, signals better hands from both opponents. We only have 2 outs against KT and AK (the J drops out), but a set is out and about often enough that we are practically drawing dead.
      Furthermore, the reverse implied odds are enormous since we won't be able to get away from the hand if we improve and get into a raising war.
      Just like in hand 1, we are not ahead and don't even care to improve, so it's best to fold directly and sit this hand out in peace.


      Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q:spade: , A:spade:
      [color:#666666]1 folds[/color], [color:#FF0000]Hero raises[/color], [color:#666666]1 folds[/color], [color:#FF0000]MP1 3-bets[/color], [color:#666666]6 folds[/color], Hero calls.

      Flop: Q:diamond: , 9:spade: , K:club: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, [color:#FF0000]MP1 bets[/color], Hero calls.

      Turn: 6:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, [color:#FF0000]MP1 bets[/color], Hero calls.

      River: A:heart: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, [color:#FF0000]MP1 bets[/color], Hero calls.

      This hand provides another example of a Way Ahead/Way Behind Situation.
      We open raise with Aqs from early position and get a 3 bet from MP1 in reply. We flop middle pair, top kicker. We have at most 2 outs against all his possible hands if we are behind, or else he has at most 2 outs against us if we are ahead.
      A raise doesn't do anything for us, we just want to get to the showdown cheaply and don't want to give him a chance to fold a worse hand.
      The flush draw on the turn doesn't change anything in this hand, and even the A on the river doesn't radically improve our strength (not counting the unlikely KQ on the part of the opposition). -> Call Flop, Call Turn, Call River.
      Compare to the explanation of the WAWB example hand from last weeks most instructive hands.
  • 2 replies
    • onezb
      Joined: 30.12.2006 Posts: 1,531
      Thanks a lot for those examples. I've got a question about the last hand:

      MP1 is 3-betting preflop, so I'd put him on a strong pocket pair or AK. Now against AK we'd be hopelessly behind with only 2 outs. Also the only high pocket pairs we could beat are tens or jacks.

      After all I don't see many situations where we would be ahead but a lot of situations where we are clearly behind and drawing dead. Is a calldown really justified here?
    • ciRith
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      I got a question for 4 as well.

      what if we are on the Button (maybe even SB) and villian on SB (or BB doesn't matter)