[NL20-NL50] Nl25Sh Kk

    • silent21
      silent21
      Global
      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($25)
      Hero ($25)
      UTG ($29.49)
      UTG+1 ($23.34)
      CO ($64.85)
      BTN ($33.96)

      Dealt to Hero K:heart: K:club:

      fold, fold, CO calls $0.25, BTN raises to $1.25, fold, Hero raises to $4, fold, BTN calls $2.75,

      FLOP ($8.35) 7:heart: 6:club: 9:diamond:

      Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $29.96, Hero calls $15,

      villain is 24/18 0%3bet, 0%4bet, 2.4 af, 21wtsd, 55 w$sd, 300hands

      my stats at that point were something like 10/10 0%3bet 100 hands. villain insta shoved turn.
  • 11 replies
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Hey Silent,
      Long time long seen... log in to the skype tonight if you can.

      About the hand:
      You should bet more pf since you are going to be OOP ~ 4.7$

      Flop: geee, it's an hard one. what's his call to 3bet pf? Do you have any reads if is capable of calling a 3bet with a small PP. it's either a set,QQ and maybe maybe AA imp.
      You have 33% equity against this range which makes an EV+ call but I'm not sure about the QQ... :(
      On the other hand would he shove a set here? he might think that C/C and then Betting the turn may look to strong and you might not pay him.

      I might be too conservative (and might be wrong too) here but I tend to fold...
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Oh this is gonna be a long one.


      I agree on the preflop 3bet size oop, it should be bigger to worsen his pot odds and discourage him to call with speculative stuff if he is a reasonable player, which he seems to be given his stats.

      Be careful however, he never 3bet nor 4bet before in 300 hands, so his 3bet calling range is likely something as strong as 88+ AQ+ and some random speculative hands like 98s-JTs or something.

      This flop is ok for both of your ranges, better for him if he indeed calls medium pocket pairs, and i assume he knows that since he seems competent.



      - If he has an overpair he shouldn't really feel the need to protect his hand by shoving over your c-bet, because you have overcards or an overpair on that board almost always, so the turn can't hurt him that much unless it's a K or an A. He would only be isolating himself against QQ+ if he has something like TT-QQ.

      - If he has 88 or something like 98s then his play makes sense, he might be able to sometimes make you fold TT-JJ and even if you call he still has 10 outs most of the time.

      - If he has a set, he likely can't be outdrawn by your range on that board unless you 2-out him, so shoving doesn't make much sense unless he wants you to put him on something like 88.

      - If he has AA then he called preflop to do exactly that, shove over your c-bet representing some kind of draw when you likely also have an overpair which he can stack while getting a c-bet out of AQ/AK.

      - If he has AQ/AK, unless he's nuts which i very much doubt, he's never shoving here.



      All in all, i see more often then not AA here because people are a lot tighter then we think. Flatting AA in position to shove over a c-bet repping a draw is very common these days.

      Next most likely suspect is 88 or 98s although the preflop call is somewhat less likely, but the play makes sense.

      Then come slightly misplayed TT-QQ because nobody folds an overpair, then sets because preflop calls with 66-77 are also somewhat unlikely, and then AQ/AK because he has to be out of his mind to shove these over your c-bet in that spot, unless he has reason to believe you know he can flat small to medium pocket pairs to your 3bets, which seems like a stretch.

      We're gonna take out 66 and TT to somewhat reduce their likelyhood because we think he wouldn't play TT-QQ or 66-77&99 that way. AQ/AK are also out of the equation, the more he shoves that over anyway the better for us. Against a tight range of { JJ+, 99-77, 98s } you're a 52:48 favourite on that board so without a better read you have to call given the odds.


      Make a note on what he ends up showing down, and adapt your play next time against that reg.
    • silent21
      silent21
      Global
      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      @maya

      I am on vacation on the seaside and i am not playing poker/online at all. The weather yesterday was very bad so i played 2k hands but nothing more. See you soon and thanks for the opinion for the hand

      @tamairlarace

      thank for the great analysis. basically i knew i am behind vs this reg but with the given equity i called for information so i can make a note on him. and yes he had AA :)
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Hey tamairlarace,

      I enjoy reading your posts. I love your thinking process. :)
      In this case I think you took it a little far then it should.

      1.The sample is a bit small, but I don't see this guy calling pf with 89 so you can take it out of the equation.

      2.I don't see a 21% wtsd, 0% 3bet, 0% 4bet villain shoving with a draw unless it's a very big draw which in this case the only hand that fits into that category is 88.

      3.He looks like a thinking player, I don't see him insta-shoving this board with JJ.

      4. AK/AQ are out of the question from the same reasons of point number 2.

      5. I think that if 77 are in his calling range 66 are there too.

      So we are looking at {66-99,QQ,AA} which I have doubts about the QQ.

      {66-99,QQ,AA} = 39.3%
      {66-99,AA} = 24.8%

      Pot odds are 2.35:1 which giver us 29.8% equity.

      I would be glad hearing a response. :)

      Edit: Just saw that Silent post the results... :tongue:
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,382
      I believe that you might be behind when he shoves, but for 30% pot odds (15/50) I don't think I can fold because he could have 55, 88, TT, JJ, QQ. Also of course he could have nuts, set, AA, 2pair, draws, bluff, etc
      Put some numbers into Equilator and see what happens =)

      Edit: I just saw Equilator and you are favourite vs 66+ range lol
      Way more than the 30%+rake that you need.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by maya1984
      Hey tamairlarace,

      I enjoy reading your posts. I love your thinking process. :)
      Thank you.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      In this case I think you took it a little far then it should.
      I do tend to do that, i think in terms of ranges against somewhat tough regs likely from 100nl+ who can show up sometimes with less than the mortal nuts in most spots. It hurts in practice but hey, we're gonna get there one day.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      1.The sample is a bit small, but I don't see this guy calling pf with 89 so you can take it out of the equation.
      We're actually almost flipping with 89 so it doesn't matter that much in this situation equity-wise (this is something to remember to fasten the thought process on the tables) but i agree it's a speculative call at best.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      2.I don't see a 21% wtsd, 0% 3bet, 0% 4bet villain shoving with a draw unless it's a very big draw which in this case the only hand that fits into that category is 88.
      So if the only big draw for him in this spot is 88 and you agree he might shove it i don't really see a problem :p
      The fact that he actually shoves with his draws is not as important as it seems. More important is the fact that most people immediately think "draw!" when you shove on that kind of boards, which makes it a good play with made hands to get a call from worse hands trying to bust a draw.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      3.He looks like a thinking player, I don't see him insta-shoving this board with JJ.
      I agree it's a mediocre play at best, still you will see it from average regs with the following reasoning : i'm likely best right now if he c-bet with overcards, but if i just call and a Q, a K or A falls on the turn, it's gonna be hard to play so i want to protect my hand. It's deeply flawed, but it happens.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      4. AK/AQ are out of the question from the same reasons of point number 2.
      Agreed, you will see tough opponents making plays with just overcards sometimes, but it's an awful spot to do so, which is why it didn't factor much into my reasoning here.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      5. I think that if 77 are in his calling range 66 are there too.
      I think you missed the point of what i was trying to do, or maybe i just suck at explaining it.

      For example, we have 66-77 that play almost the same here. He may or may not call with them, and both made a set which crushes us. So that's 2*3=6 combos of hands total. But we think that it's somewhat unlikely he will do that because it's a bad play most of the time, so we don't want to put all the 6 combos into the Equilator for our calculations. A quick way to discard some hands is to just get rid of 66, which reduces total combos to 3 and thus makes it half less likely that he has those hands in this spot.

      I took out TT from TT-JJ for the same reason, because this play with TT-JJ wouldn't make much sense but people still will do it sometimes, so i made it half less likely by just putting JJ into the calculations. Actually TT also has a gutshot, so maybe taking out JJ instead was a better idea.

      Hope it's better this time :)


      Originally posted by maya1984
      So we are looking at {66-99,QQ,AA} which I have doubts about the QQ.

      {66-99,QQ,AA} = 39.3%
      {66-99,AA} = 24.8%

      Pot odds are 2.35:1 which giver us 29.8% equity.
      Taking into account my answers to your other questions, i'd settle on

      { 77-99, TT, QQ, AA } best case scenario -> flip
      { 77-99, QQ, AA } somewhere in the middle -> 43:57
      { 77-99, QQ, AA } worse case scenario -> 27:73

      I still think overall we have the odds to make a call, given that it is not THAT bad even in the worst case scenario, and it's also gonna help us play better against that reg in the long run

      Originally posted by maya1984
      I would be glad hearing a response. :)
      Here it is. Hope we can have discussions like that often in the future.

      Originally posted by maya1984
      Edit: Just saw that Silent post the results... :tongue:
      Not really surprising, but you end up getting it in preflop anyway if he 4bets it so it's no a major concern without better reads, just bad luck on silent's part. In the long run you'll be in that KKvsAA spot as often as your opponents, so it will even out.



      Hope it helped.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by TheBrood
      I believe that you might be behind when he shoves, but for 30% pot odds (15/50) I don't think I can fold because he could have 55, 88, TT, JJ, QQ. Also of course he could have nuts, set, AA, 2pair, draws, bluff, etc
      Put some numbers into Equilator and see what happens =)

      Edit: I just saw Equilator and you are favourite vs 66+ range lol
      Way more than the 30%+rake that you need.
      It's a problem inherent to the Equilator, we do calculations on ranges with purely combinatorial distribution, meaning AA is as likely as QQ because their are 6 combos of each. In practice we know that our opponent will

      - always do that on the flop with the hands that beat us ( AA, 66, 77 = 12 combos ), even tho it's not likely that he called 66 and 77 preflop and decided not to slowplay his sets postflop.
      - rarely do that with the hands that we beat ( TT, JJ, QQ = 18 combos ), as his postflop play is mediocre at best when he does actually shove those.

      So those last hands matter the most ( 18 combos > 12 combos ) in the calculations, and yet they are rather unlikely even compared to AA alone.

      So we have to be careful while interpreting these results, it's usually better to try and manipulate the ranges to reflect what we think of the actual probability for each hand, like i tried to do in my previous post.


      Hope it helps.
    • Joshquan
      Joshquan
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2009 Posts: 479
      This in depth analysis is very intresting and most likely somewhat above my level of play.

      I was thinking however, that if he is a thinking player and recognised you as a good solid player also, he would appriciate your tight range as well as the strong odds he was laying you to call and therefore only shove if he was confident to be ahead? This leads only really to KK+ or sets which have already been discussed that he would most likely just call.

      Hopes this makes sense :)
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi Joshquan,

      Try and add another layer to your thinking, as it is important to make that distinction :

      - Being confident to be ahead is not enough to shove in that spot, if you don't believe that your opponent will call with worse hands also, then it's the wrong play.

      - Conversely, being confident to be behind is sometimes enough to shove in that spot, if you also believe that your opponent can fold better hands often enough to make the play +ev overall.


      By representing a worse hand trying to get us off a better hand, namely 88, villain took advantage of his status of relative unknown to induce a "bad" call on our part. As it stood, we were aware that if he was good enough he could manipulate us that way, but we couldn't be sure he wasn't bad enough to do that with something like QQ also, in which case folding would have been a big mistake on our part.

      Similarily, it doesn't make sense at first glance to do that with a set, but it does make sense if you believe your opponent thinks you never will.


      In these grayish areas, we usually go with the odds the first time and make the call. In the future we will be able to make better decisions against this opponent now that we know he did that with AA. Of course he likely knows we know and thus might show up next time with total air in this spot, that's poker.
    • Joshquan
      Joshquan
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2009 Posts: 479
      Thanks alot for your reply tamairlarace, this hand has been a very intresting insight into the thought proccess of the BSS at a higher level, and I hope to reach this standard of play in the not so distant future :s_cool:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Sometimes you see there TT-QQ, sometimes pair+draws.
      Consider that you have overpair in 3-bet pot I´d likely call, because players tend nowadays shove more with draws rather than call and fold unimproved.