[NL20-NL50] NL25sh. KK

    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      I don't know why I just called on the flop. I put him on something like AQ.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($31.47)
      BB ($42.46)
      UTG ($23.01)
      Hero ($25)
      CO ($71.61)
      BTN ($19.72)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: K:club:

      fold, Hero raises to $1, fold, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.90, fold

      FLOP ($3.25) Q:spade: T:heart: 8:spade:

      SB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75, BTN calls $2.75

      TURN ($11.50) Q:spade: T:heart: 8:spade: 2:spade:

      SB checks, Hero bets $8.19, BTN folds, SB calls $8.19

      RIVER ($27.88) Q:spade: T:heart: 8:spade: 2:spade: Q:heart:

      SB bets $19.53 (AI), Hero folds

      SB wins $26.49


      My mistake may have been just calling on the flop, I'm not sure though against his range, He's a bit of an unknown.
  • 12 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      That's going to take some time without any reads...


      Preflop

      First, that's not really the kind of flop you're gonna make money on with KK.

      Against two unknowns without any stats it's gonna be hard to say what's going on for sure. We can safely assume the button is not so bright given his stack size, you're probably looking at any 2 broadways, any pocket pair, some Axs and some suited connectors. SB probably has roughly the same range, even if he is a tag given the price he's getting and the fact that he gets to play a pot with the fish.

      That means on that flop there are a lot of pair+gutshot type of hands including top pairs, some two pairs, some sets, some OESDs, possibly some flush draws.

      Flop

      We know nothing about SB donking range on the flop, at first glance it could be anything. His bet sizing isn't bad tho, makes me think he probably knows what he is doing, so he's likely donking here TPGK+ for protection on this wet board figuring he has the best hand, or any big draw for fold equity reasons. Remember he's betting into the fish too, so i don't think it's likely he has air and just wants to squeeze you out on that board.

      BU behind us could have anything, he's probably gonna call SB's bet with any piece of the board, maybe as small as a gutshot.

      Our hand isn't strong enough that we are concerned about giving the BU a chance to come along, as we would like to protect our hand from all the draws our there. The question is what will the SB do against our raise ?

      - he's probably gonna shove over a set or two pairs on that board.
      - he might shove TPTK if he thinks he's ahead or we're drawing, he might also just call with it to see a safe turn or simply pitch it right there figuring he can't be good when we raise his bet into both him and the fish.
      - if he's aggressive which it looks like he is, he will likely shove a naked NFD or a combo draw over our raise.
      - he's gonna fold all the rest, except maybe QJ.

      Overall that's a shitty spot, we're either gonna have to get the money in now knowing we're most likely behind or flipping (our Ks backdoor flush draw might not even be good if he's shoving the NFD) , or just call and deal with a ton of bad turn cards for our hand against two players.

      I think i actually don't mind just calling and seeing a turn as SB doesn't seem to be a bad player, his bet here shows strength and i don't like our chances when we get shoved on after raising. If he was a fish i would probably raise and call a shove expecting him to show me Qx enough of the time.

      Turn

      The turn card is obviously bad, whatever the SB had that didn't beat us is now ahead of us. He does check tho, which i expect him to do with anything that didn't make a flush given that he got called in two spots and both the fish or us could now have the flush. That doesn't mean he's folding to just one bet, i expect him to c/c one street with his two pairs and sets at least. He might even c/r or c/c a made flush at that point.

      The fish is still in the hand and might have made the flush also as he overcalled the flop, if he has AsXs we're stonecold dead. We might try and bet to get a call from Qx from the fish if it was heads-up, but i don't like it 3-way.

      Bottom line i don't think we should bet that turn here, we're almost turning our hand into a bluff, a bad bluff that probably won't fold out any better hands if we only bet one street. If you think the SB is on the fishy side and will call once with Qx it might be ok-ish to be here with the intention of checking behind the river, but i don't.

      River

      On the river it looks like whatever he was afraid of on the turn doesn't bother him anymore, and now he doesn't want you to check behind. I think he has a boat there often, QT TT 88, or at least a flush that he weirdly slowplayed and now open-shoved a board pairing river with because he put you on a top pair before and thinks you can't get away from trips Q. Other possibility is he is fishy, had top pair himself and now went nuts with trips Q, which i don't think is likely either.

      Anyway you can't call that river shove with your hand.


      Rambling

      Hope it helps somebody somehow, even if it's really speculative stuff without any reads on the players.
    • SheepMoose
      SheepMoose
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2009 Posts: 854
      His stats were 11/5 or something. He was extremely tight for shorthanded in my opinion, Hold'em manager's stats show that he's someone that only bets very strong hands?

      Anyway, he told me he had QT, which rather surprised me for someone so tight.

      The button fish was some 63/0 fish, so I was not worried about him at too much in this hand, he seemed to get himself involved in a lot of pots.
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      I would raise/fold that flop. Would make it like 8.5 to go. That way you can get BU off of any trash draw he has and if called see a turn IP against SB or if he comes over the top I can find a fold. I don`t think calling the flop is such a good ideea , you will often give free cards to worse hands given the fact that any broadway either has a gutshot , oesd or draw to a two pair/trips and you will still sometimes , rarely tho imo get a call by worse. But at least you know you are not folding the best hand and not giving away free cards , because basically any face card and any spade is not a card you want to see.

      As played on the turn I would rather c/c than bet out. You don`t want to get c/r here by SB or get raised by BU either because if you do you are always behind.

      As played river is a fold.

      Oh and btw 11/5 is really really tight for a SH table IMO , but still he is still calling 11 there and due to the fact that BU called too he get better odds and a shot at the fish`s money so I guess he is calling lighter there. Btw 11% range is something like 44+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by BogdanDin7
      I would raise/fold that flop. Would make it like 8.5 to go. That way you can get BU off of any trash draw he has and if called see a turn IP against SB or if he comes over the top I can find a fold. I don`t think calling the flop is such a good ideea , you will often give free cards to worse hands given the fact that any broadway either has a gutshot , oesd or draw to a two pair/trips and you will still sometimes , rarely tho imo get a call by worse. But at least you know you are not folding the best hand and not giving away free cards , because basically any face card and any spade is not a card you want to see.

      I'm giving a lot more credit to SB's donk then you are. A donk from a tight player into the pfa + a huge fish who can't be bluffed out the pot. Meaning i think there is a good chance we're beat or close to it on the flop already and i don't think he's folding to a raise, as his range for doing that is skewed toward big draws and big made hands. So putting more money into the pot doesn't seem very healthy. (plus the fish is a fish, so he might tag along even if we raise if he likes his hand)

      I tend to think this isn't a profitable situation to begin with, meaning i'd rather get outdrawn and get away cheaply, rather then making them pay to draw while sandwiched inbetween a tag and a fish and still cry on the turn when they call because

      - 50% of the deck turn cards we feel like we got outdrawn anyway, except we put in 9.5$ instead of $3.75
      - the other 50% blank cards we don't feel that good either, as he could also have had the best hand on the flop. If he bets again, do we call ? He might still be betting with a FD, or he might have us drawing dead. With $15.5 left and 22$ in the pot, we have to make a high variance pot-committing decision against a tight unknown and/or a fish.


      I guess this is more of an weak line for small stakes, when a tight player wakes up and you won't like most of the turn cards anyway, don't bloat the pot :)
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      I agree that I don`t want a big pot here and that SB very often has a hand. I just don`t see myself getting away from a bet from SB on the turn on a blankish card . Even if a draw hits you still have the redraw to the spades and might find hard to fold in a spot like that. By raising flop I don`t think I`m creating a bigger pot. I`m raising and that`s it , further action means I`m letting it go. If he donks turn again after raise I`m done with it too. This way I`m investing 8.5 while while by just calling flop you would often have to call a turn as well and will get more or less to the same money invested , just that by raising you will still rarely get a fold or get to the reaver with same money or fold when you know for sure you are behind , because I can`t see him repop a raise there with any worse.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by BogdanDin7
      just that by raising you will still rarely get a fold or get to the reaver
      Somebody's been playing starcraft!
    • rhinoneil
      rhinoneil
      Gold
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      there is some pretty in depth analysis here, all of which makes sense.
      That being siad, rather than playing in the dark, I raise the flop bet, get it in against fish or let it go to any further aggression from TAG.
      As played, if you didnt know where you were on flop, you certainly do after he calls turn bet so you have to fold the river.
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      Originally posted by BogdanDin7
      just that by raising you will still rarely get a fold or get to the reaver
      Somebody's been playing starcraft!
      busted :f_biggrin:
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think your line is perfictly fine.
      You could raise flop and hope that he plays his draw or Qx aggressively, but if he is unknown then I like taking passive line and just calling on the flop
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      What is your reasoning for betting the turn ?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      What is your reasoning for betting the turn ?
      to get value from Qx hands
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      It feels rather weird to try and get value from Qx hands on the turn, given that we passed on that opportunity on the flop already, and the board is even scarier now for a Qx hand.