[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH AA folded on scary river

    • Volrath89
      Volrath89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 2,170
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB ($22.34)
      BB ($5.53)
      UTG ($20.61)
      MP ($22.87)
      Hero (CO) ($20)
      Button ($21.43)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
      2 folds, Hero bets $0.80, Button calls $0.80, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.90) 6, J, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.30, Button calls $1.30

      Turn: ($4.50) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3, Button calls $3

      River: ($10.50) 10 (2 players)
      Hero checks, Button bets $5.25, Hero folds

      Total pot: $10.50

      Villain is: 19/10/4.0/13 - 42 hands.

      too weak or well played?
      Maybe blockbet/fold on the river would've been better?
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi.


      Preflop


      Villain is very tight, probably a tag given he has 100+bb. He has a big gap between is VPIP and his PFR tho, that's probably variance but for what it's worth he might be in the habit of coldcalling too much stuff preflop.

      He would probably repop you right there with AK/JJ+, which means he's likely calling here with something like

      22-TT, AT-AQ, KT-KQ, QJ, JTs-65s, J9s-86s


      Flop


      On the flop he probably dumps 22-55, maybe he floats overs maybe he doesn't, his wts seems lowish i'd say he probably doesn't very often. All the rest he's calling with, which is why i'd bet bigger, there is a lot of value and you need to protect your hand. Make it 4/5 pot. So we're looking at

      66-TT, AJ, KJ, QJ, JTs-65s, J9s-86s


      Turn


      Against your turn bet he'll probably continue with most of this stuff as the 9 helped quite a few hands, giving them either a set, 2 pairs, 1 pair to go with a draw or a GS to go with their pair. The only hand he's dumping is 65s. Meaning there still is a lot of value so i would also bet bigger, make it at least 3/4 pot.


      River


      The river basically kills your hand, as even if he somehow floated overcards and then picked up a flush draw on the turn, he also got there. Everything in his range except AJ and KJ is now ahead of you. You're a 3:1 dog.

      The fact that he didn't raise you before makes it less likely he has some of these hands tho. By the turn the board is quite drawy, so most made hands like sets and two pairs should definitely raise you, both to protect from straights and to build the pot to extract more value. So unless villain has a bad slowplaying habit, that leaves us with most likely

      77, TT, AJ, KJ, QJ, JTs, T9s, 87s, 76s, T8s, 97s

      You're only a 2:1 dog against that range, which gives you better odds on your blockbet. The fact is you could have a Q yourself or you could have 2nd barreled the heart FD, so most of these hands will be hard pressed to raise your river bet if you make it reasonable. Only QJ and random heart floats can do it with any confidence.

      If you check to him, will he bet AJ/KJ ? I don't think so. So basically when you check and he bets you can be sure you're behind as there aren't many bluffs in his range. You can only get value from worse hands by blockbetting.

      But these two hands have to be scared of the board also, so it's doubtful whether they will even call a river blockbet if you make one.

      All in all i think i would still make a blockbet between 2/5 and 1/2 pot here, as it will enable us to see the showdown almost always if he doesn't spazz out with just a set on a 4 straight board, which i don't think he will. This is useful information as this guy has position on us all the time, plus we are sometimes ahead.



      Hope it helps somehow.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      he might call with KJ or AJ, but c/f is likely better there