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[NL20-NL50] NL25sh - AA

    • PetterG2
      Joined: 12.10.2008 Posts: 224
      Known players:

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (4 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:spade: , A:diamond:
      Hero raises to $1,00, 2 folds, BB calls $0,75.

      Flop: ($2,10) 9:heart: , K:spade: , Q:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1,30, BB raises to $3,85, Hero raises to $24,00 (All-In), BB calls $14,17 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Turn: ($38,14) 6:club:
      River: ($38,14) 8:club: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $38,14

      Villian is tagish. This was the forth hand or something this session, but I played with him last night. I had been raising all the previous hands this session both PrF and PoF so I think he might be able raise flop with weaker hand than he normally would do.
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      C-bet bigger, the board is very drawy, you will get called by a lot of worse hands from which you need to protect.

      After that your play seems to be based on your history with that player so we're gonna have a hard time commenting on it objectively.

      He doesn't seem very good because he isn't rebuying to 100bb but his stats look solid. He likely isn't flatting JJ+ preflop unless his 3Bet% is very low, TT he might flat, some people flat AK too, most of the time you're gonna see AQ, KQ, KJ or 22-99, QJs-JTs, and maybe some lower suited connectors or Axs if he defends his BB often.

      When he raises that flop, he might be turning 22-88 into a bluff but most players won't, as if you hit that board it's gonna take a flop raise + a turn shove to try to get you off a top pair, tho based on your history it's possible. He isn't doing that with QJ or AQ either, unless you tilt him so much that he's throwing all logic through the window. TT/KJ likely wouldn't do that either, if he even flats that preflop.

      That leaves us with maybe AK, KQ, 99, JTs and random flush draws or combo draws.

      If he has AK and some bluffs sometimes you're probably in the clear shoving in it there with your history. If you have seen him 3bet AK before, your equity against his 3bet calling range goes way down and you're better be pretty sure he will stack off light there too. Plus if he really was making a move on you he's never gonna call your shove, you might be better off just calling and letting him shove the turn instead.
    • Bierbaer
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Yep, cbet bigger.

      If you think he might be raising you light i'd call the flop and bet/push a safe turn rather than 3bet the flop.
      By the time you are 3betting the flop you isolate yourself vs the hands that beat you.

      But i'd consider folding on the flop. In your opponents eyes this board hits your openraising range on the cutoff hard, so he might not be checkraising as light as you think.
      And furthermore your equity vs most of his draws will be ~60% or you might just be flipping when he has a FD+gutshot.
      And if he has 2pair+ you have <18% EQ.