[NL20-NL50] NL20SH AJs flushdraw on the turn

    • Volrath89
      Volrath89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 2,170
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.20 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (UTG) ($21.42)
      MP ($3.70)
      Button ($22.61)
      SB ($31.16)
      BB ($21.32)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
      Hero bets $0.80, 3 folds, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.70) Q, J, 3 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.20, BB calls $1.20

      Turn: ($4.10) 10 (2 players)
      BB bets $4.10, Hero ???

      Villain stats:
      35/17/3.0 -- 27hands

      What to do against this potsize donkbet on the turn?, I think I have 14 outs (12 against a set) but there's only 1 card left, so maybe just call and reevaluate river?
  • 4 replies
    • CrippleAlex
      CrippleAlex
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 997
      I think I would call here, and value bet river if you hit, you are in position, you have got good implied odds againt DP, set etc ...

      Raising turn would be over played, and call is ok in my opinion.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      I think when he does that he mostly has 2 pairs with JT/QT or a set, maybe KQ for TP+OSED, sometimes air.

      That means if we hit with our flushdraw we have good implieds as it's mostly disguised and he has a hand good enough to pay us off, and if he has air we are ahead.

      I'm calling.
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Yeah, I'm calling. We have a gazillion outs and we're certainly get another bet from him on the river, even if just a small one.. it'll be enough.

      Set is very unlikely, since the only reasonable possibility is 33. Most likely it's 2P indeed. Or some other crazy unaccounted for hand.
    • Bierbaer
      Bierbaer
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2005 Posts: 7,989
      Originally posted by caltabiano
      Yeah, I'm calling. We have a gazillion outs and we're certainly get another bet from him on the river, even if just a small one.. it'll be enough.
      Furthermore even if you don't improve he could've been bluffing and is giving up by the time the river hits - you get to the SD being ahead sometimes.