[NL20-NL50] NL25 Pair of Eights

    • naikaz
      naikaz
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 5
      What do you think, how to find out that opponent has bigger pocket pair ?

      Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB ($17.39)
      Hero (BB) ($40.38)
      UTG ($25)
      Button ($25)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, 8
      UTG bets $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50

      Flop: ($1.60) 4, 5, 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.14, UTG calls $1.14

      Turn: ($3.88) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.76, UTG raises $6.02, Hero calls $3.26

      River: ($15.92) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG raises to $17.09 (All-In), Hero ??

      Total pot: $15.92
  • 5 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      I don't like donkbetting that flop. I'd rather c/c, or c/r. I thinhk I'll often c/r, since I'd like to take down the pot right here. There are a billion cards that suck for our hand. Any overcard and any spade will leave us in a crappy situation OOP on the turn.

      Once villain calls and raises you on the turn, I think you're very often dead. You beat only 2 PP, wheereas there are 6 that beat you. I doubt he would be completely bluffing in the turn. So I just fold to hir raise.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      As played


      Originally posted by caltabiano
      Once villain calls and raises you on the turn, I think you're very often dead. You beat only 2 PP, wheereas there are 6 that beat you. I doubt he would be completely bluffing in the turn. So I just fold to hir raise.

      As a side note


      Assuming villain is decent (he seems to rebuy to 100bb at least), he's open raising really wide because you're 4 handed so he is effectively in the cut off, something like

      22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, A8o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, 76o+

      So on that board he has some pocket pairs, but mostly lots and lots of whiffed overcards. If you donk into him on that flop, he'll fold all his air and call or raise you with other overpairs. If you check, he will likely c-bet that paired flop with all his air (huge part of his range) to try and take you off YOUR air, so you will gain a lot of value from worse hands.

      If you c/r you will get that c-bet and avoid overcards falling on the turn thus "protecting" your hand, but you will never be called by a worse hand, at best by something like KsQs you're flipping with and even that might just 3bet you.

      True, if you c/c you don't "protect" from those overcards hands, and you are gonna hate it when the turn comes a K and he fires again, but keep in mind it likely won't cost you much more money to call again the 2nd barrel then it would cost you to raise the flop, and nobody said you even have to call it if you feel you're beat. Plus all the times where the turn is a blank and/or he simply gives up, you can take the pot down or check it down easily.

      I know it's hard not to know where you're at in a hand, but information bets/raises are often not the best play and will lose you money if you don't use them sparingly.

      Just my take on things, hope it helps somehow
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Yeah, that's very true tamair.

      I believe these situations are very opponent depending. Versus some opponents, we can actually c/c 3 streets for value, regardless of the cards that fall on the turn and river. However, most opponents never 2nd barrel without a made hand. So, we're only getting one street of value anyway and we gain nothing by c/c. We're then just letting our opponent 6-out on us.

      I think neiter the c/c nor hte c/r are wrong. We must choose them based on the opponent.

      If I know my opponent likes to 2nd a lot, another option is c/c flop, c/r turn. This line is especially interesting cause we might get him off stronger PP than ours.

      Versus an unknown, I think my first line would be to c/r this flop.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by caltabiano
      However, most opponents never 2nd barrel without a made hand. So, we're only getting one street of value anyway and we gain nothing by c/c. We're then just letting our opponent 6-out on us.
      I'm fine with letting people 6 out me, that means i win 75% of the time. Plus the reason you don't believe we get one more street of value is exactly what makes me confident i can play the turn correctly : if they fire again i'm behind almost always.


      Another consideration if you're playing the same regs every day at the table : if you always c/r the flop, you will never give them the opportunity to 2nd barrel you and make a mistake. They fold their air to your raise, they call or 3bet if they have you crushed. Perfect.

      I'd much rather put myself in a situation where my c/c on the flop is common enough that it will sometimes induce a mistake, like "last two times he c/c the flop and folded to the turn bet, i'll make him fold again" rather than make them think "wait a minute, he never calls usually that's weird, i'd better not try anything" the first time i decide to c/c. I only have to catch them bluffing every so often for me to make up for the times i c/c c/f the worst hand, which won't happen often as we discussed.

      I'm sure coupled with the times he just gives up and doesn't suck out, it's fine.


      Hope it makes sense.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d likely c/c flop, turn and fold to river against unknown
      against tight players I´d likely c/c flop and then fold to turn
      against loose players c/r flop and playing there for stacks might be fine
      but when you decide to lead, players can often represent bigger overpair by raising, so imo you should never bet out, unless you want to play for stacks
      on that board I´d c/c turn and c/f river.
      as played: fold river is fine, he could be bluffing but I don´t see him doing that too many times.