[NL20-NL50] NL50SH 68s - enough FE on turn?

    • Katavich
      Katavich
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      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      Villan is 32/2/2.0/22


      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($64.55)
      BB ($86.65)
      Hero ($56.25)
      UTG+1 ($55.60)
      CO ($45.80)
      BTN ($6)

      Dealt to Hero 8:spade: 6:spade:

      Hero raises to $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, fold, fold, fold, fold

      FLOP ($4.25) 5:spade: 2:spade: 3:club:

      Hero bets $3, UTG+1 raises to $6, Hero raises to $11, UTG+1 calls $5

      TURN ($26.25) 5:spade: 2:spade: 3:club: 8:heart:

      I 3bet only to 11$ at flop because its enough to make him fold AK or similar bluff, and I could make move on turn if he just call. When he called I put him on OP. We had 43$ on 26$ pot, and if I bet on turn, he would go all in or just call, hardly he could fold OP, and he would bet turn if I check. So is it check/all in good line and does it gives me enough FE vs him? his WTSD is 22. I still have 36% vs OP.

      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $11.50, Hero raises to $43.50 (AI), UTG+1 calls $31.35 (AI)

      I need 43% FE (his WTSD is 22)
  • 13 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Opening 86s from UTG with a loose guy right behind you and 4 other players left to act is a dubious choice to begin with, as even if you somehow manage to play a pot with just the fish out of position, it's gonna be hard to play postflop unless he folds to a lot of c-bets. Which given that you posted that hand i'm guessing it's not gonna happen here :D Strong hands that can make TP are probably a better choice.


      On the flop it's hard to say without having played with the guy, but most of us seem to underestimate the power of a wheel draw + overcards in a fish's mind. I think most of them are not folding that to you 3bet, if he has an overpair or a better flush draw he's likely calling as well. Some won't even fold naked overcards, because the flop is so low my K-high should be best !!!

      To me your 3bet is mostly a pot builder which i don't mind since we want all his money when we hit, but it also reopens the betting. What do you do with 8-high if he 4bets you or shoves over ? I assume you're folding. I think i would just call the flop, i don't think it's worth the risk just for the little bit of fold equity we have migh against a fish, we can get his stack in later on 2 streets if we hit.


      As played on the turn we now beat his random wheel draw A-high peels and higher flush draws and we still have massive equity against an overpair, but i don't think he's gonna fold anything that's currently ahead of us if we bet out again, plus we will feel bad calling it off if he shoves over and the river is gonna be an awkward spot if he just calls whether we hit the flush or not.

      A c/r looks so full of shit in a fish's eyes when we do it that he might not fold much stuff to that either.
      He might however for that very reason hero call our shove with hands that we now beat, like a higher flush draw or wheel draws, so it's a good opportunity to trap those hands in the pot and prevent them from getting away on a blank river.

      Coupled with the few times he finds a fold with an overpair i think we can't be that wrong getting it in right there and at the same time saving ourselves the headache of a c/c c/? line on a blank river even if we likely have immediate odds to call on the turn.


      Interesting spot, but it's hard to give a definite answer. Still i always seem to get drawn out on by the fishes calling huge bets with just A-high+wheel draw, so i think our fold equity is very low overall, which helps us on the turn once we pick up some showdown value, i'm stacking off trying to take all the worse hands with me.

      I'd certainly like to get other people's take on this one.
    • Katavich
      Katavich
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      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      In my experience, his tendency to call with middle pairs / A-high type of cards doesn't depends on his vpip/pfr, then mostly on WTSD, and his WTSD is really low, and because of it, I think that I have FE. With his WTSD:22 I think that he could even fold smaller PP there. He rarely has FD here because of his raise on the flop, but it is still possible.

      On turn I was thinking that there are two ways to finish that hand, to give up (and I dont like it) or to go all in because I was convinced that he had something and that he would bet turn and river if I c/c. I decided to c/all in because of dead money of his bet and it looks strong, hoping that he could fold some OP.

      ps. I played there with 86s because I was card dead and my stats were like 5/5 at that table so if I got monster I wouldnt pay off, so I was pumping stats :D , and people respect bets from nitty UTG so I was expecting everyone to fold (unless they had monster :D )
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      WTSD is a stat that will take time to converge, how big is your sample on him ?

      If the board was 752r or something you could discount him having overcards more often, but 532 2 tones for a wheel draw + a flush draw makes a donk having an A a lot more likely when he calls i feel. Him raising with it is another story but i wouldn't be surprised at all.

      Anyway i'm not giving it up on the turn either and c/c, b/c aren't really appealing, so i find comfort in the possibility that he will sometimes call with worse when we c/r.

      ps : As long as you know why you're opening each hand and what you hope to accomplish with it it's fine =)
    • Katavich
      Katavich
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      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      I have ~100 hands on him, and I will post result of hand later
      off topic: what limits do you play and where?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Oh, okay story time.

      Used to play nl50 at party, people suck bad there. Recently moved part of my roll from party to full tilt to get some long term rakeback and not weird bonuses partypoker style.

      I heard the games were tougher, plus i felt like i wasn't ready to play for 100$ stacks yet, the money thing still gets to me sometimes. So i wanted to try and get more confident in my game playing nl50, even tho i'm easily rolled for nl100.

      Nothing wrong with taking it slow i think. So i'm grinding the first deposit bonus while playing nl50 on full tilt, or nl25 if the games look really soft, and will start on nl100 when i feel like i'm ready. So far full tilt has been treating me pretty bad, i'm a big looser with AA over 10k hands.


      Where are you playing?
    • maya1984
      maya1984
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      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      hey tamairlarace,

      any chance to catch you on the tables tonight?
    • Katavich
      Katavich
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      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      I am playing at everest, NL50, and yesterday first time tryed NL100. I use Table scanner for fish finding so I have winrate over 10BB/100 :D , but I will move to NL100 these days and only play at NL50 if there is huge fish. NL50 is very soft there, there are only few good regs and many bad ones, but NL100 looks much tougher
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by maya1984
      hey tamairlarace,

      any chance to catch you on the tables tonight?
      lol. Wanna crack my AA's with garbage too ?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by Katavich
      I am playing at everest, NL50, and yesterday first time tryed NL100. I use Table scanner for fish finding so I have winrate over 10BB/100 :D , but I will move to NL100 these days and only play at NL50 if there is huge fish. NL50 is very soft there, there are only few good regs and many bad ones, but NL100 looks much tougher
      My database on FTP has very few players so i just look for people with weird stack sizes and a shark avatar :D Works fairly well. Avoid donkey avatars with 100bb obviously.

      I do agree nl100 is probably gonna be pretty tough anywhere, mostly because that's where you can begin to make real money if you're doing that for a living.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
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      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by tamairlarace
      Originally posted by maya1984
      hey tamairlarace,

      any chance to catch you on the tables tonight?
      lol. Wanna crack my AA's with garbage too ?
      lol, not really. I'm not playing NL50 anyway.
      Just wanted to watch you play... :)
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
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      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Originally posted by maya1984
      Just wanted to watch you play... :)
      Haha. I'd rather play without railbirds for now, my play isn't worth it yet trust me. :)

      I plan on doing some videos of me playing long term tho, i always liked how people could explain their thought process on the fly, and i want to be able to do that someday. That's one of my personal goals concerning poker.

      Maybe one day we will both get what we want :p
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      not really sure, but I doubt he is folding there pair if you c/rai.
      So I rather like smt ridicules, like shoving all-in on the turn or just bet/calling.
      and you should 3-bet bigger on the flop, if you decides to do that.
      he gets too good odds to call whatever hand he raised.
    • Katavich
      Katavich
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      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      btw. he had AA. river vas 4 :spade: :f_cool: