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[NL20-NL50] NL50SH AQ squeeze, line check

    • Katavich
      Katavich
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      SB ($78.96)
      BB ($50.70)
      UTG ($63.50)
      UTG+1 ($64.50)
      Hero ($52.15)
      BTN ($48.80)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: A:heart:

      UTG raises to $1.75, UTG+1 calls $1.75, Hero raises to $7.75, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $6, UTG+1 calls $6

      FLOP ($24) 9:heart: Q:spade: 8:club:

      UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls $14, UTG+1 folds

      TURN ($52) 9:heart: Q:spade: 8:club: J:diamond:

      UTG checks, Hero checks

      RIVER ($52) 9:heart: Q:spade: 8:club: J:diamond: 5:club:

      UTG bets $41.75 (AI), Hero folds

      UTG wins $49.40

      UTG:
      28/26/2.5/25 (400 hands)
      fold to 3bet: 38%
      fold to Cbet (3betpot): 100% (2)

      UTG+1:
      12/8/1.3/16 (210 hands)

      Flop:
      Bet for protection

      Turn:
      After his call, there is no reasonable hand that I can beat, so line is c/f

      right line?
  • 3 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      He seems to be defending to a lot of 3bets, it's not unreasonable to believe that he has some sort of speculative hands like suited connectors and small pocket pairs together with the usual 88+/AQ core when he calls preflop.

      He called your flop c-bet with another player left to act tho, giving you a strong indication that you're beat already or that he's at least drawing to a lock with something like QJs or TT, and when the J comes on the turn i feel like his whole range including speculative suited connectors as you smoked.

      On the river, he already c/c two streets on a board that is quite drawy even for a 3bet pot and now he open shoves into you. He can't expect you to ever call that without at least TPTK if he has a hand, and i won't believe floating the flop oop 3-way planning to take you off your hand if you show weakness is even remotely possible until is see him do it. I think he has at least JJ for 2nd pair + GS on the flop and now 2nd set, most likely a T with either TT or JTs.

      We're getting almost 3:1 but i don't think we're good here ever.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think he shouldn´t raise/call 3-bet oop with Tx to many times
      so I´d likely shove turn for value, although check behind and deciding on the river is also fine.
    • Katavich
      Katavich
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.07.2008 Posts: 176
      I am not concerned for Tx hands, then for 88+ hands