This one was really bugging me - what do YOU think?

    • thegrouse
      Joined: 17.05.2009 Posts: 44
      I'm 13fish.

      PokerStars Game #29913535533: Tournament #175252901, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2009/06/29 19:26:47 WET [2009/06/29 14:26:47 ET]
      Table '175252901 55' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
      Seat 1: RyDawwg (9075 in chips)
      Seat 2: fred5454 (17735 in chips)
      Seat 3: gianca15 (6195 in chips)
      Seat 4: andyqc (14755 in chips)
      Seat 5: Lokartha (8698 in chips)
      Seat 6: Tereza05 (14085 in chips)
      Seat 7: 13fish (5337 in chips)
      Seat 8: 10.TeK (4055 in chips) is sitting out
      Seat 9: hayek (20874 in chips)
      hayek: posts small blind 75
      RyDawwg: posts big blind 150
      *** HOLE CARDS ***
      Dealt to 13fish [Js Jh]
      fred5454 has timed out
      fred5454: folds
      fred5454 is sitting out
      gianca15: folds
      andyqc: folds
      fred5454 has returned
      Lokartha: raises 450 to 600
      Tereza05: folds
      13fish: calls 600
      10.TeK: folds
      hayek: folds
      RyDawwg: folds
      *** FLOP *** [3c 9h 4c]
      Lokartha: bets 750
      13fish: raises 1200 to 1950
      Lokartha: raises 6148 to 8098 and is all-in
      13fish: folds
      Uncalled bet (6148) returned to Lokartha
      Lokartha collected 5325 from pot
      Lokartha: doesn't show hand
      *** SUMMARY ***
      Total pot 5325 | Rake 0
      Board [3c 9h 4c]
      Seat 1: RyDawwg (big blind) folded before Flop
      Seat 2: fred5454 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 3: gianca15 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 4: andyqc folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 5: Lokartha collected (5325)
      Seat 6: Tereza05 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 7: 13fish folded on the Flop
      Seat 8: 10.TeK (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
      Seat 9: hayek (small blind) folded before Flop
  • 5 replies
    • ihufa
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
    • Jackalof
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 1,462
      Without stats it's hard to say, but i bet 10 cents villain had A9s ;)
    • WildBeans
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      I think this
    • Modge
      Joined: 24.06.2009 Posts: 4
      You gotta call there dude.

      There's what? Around 11.5k in the pot and it's costing you under 3k to call?

      Half your stack is out there and it's a decent flop when holding jacks.

      Of course you're worried about a bigger pp or a set but, imo, you can't get away from this.

      I'd estimate you're around 50/50* vs his range and odds of just under 4/1 are simply too good to turn down.

      If you're beat, so be it but you gotta see this through.


      * This is based on a quick guestimate of his range, being something like:

      4 hands crushing you (90/10 - being AA / KK / QQ / 999 [not counting the lower sets given his pre-flop raise) - MOST LIKELY HANDS

      10 coin flips (50/50 - A Xc) - POSSIBLE HANDS

      10 hands you're crushing (30/70 - 10s or less, excluding the lower sets, including AK/AQ/A10 non club) - LEAST LIKELY HANDS

      So, although it's likely you're beat, there's sufficient reason to justify a call given the odds you're getting.

      P.P.S This is only a quick guestimate - don't slate me if there's mistakes in the calculations ;)
    • tcs35
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Originally posted by ihufa