Luck factor

    • Eco024
      Eco024
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 282
      I just was playng a session of FL SH and I had to quit at the 140 hand because I was loosing too much. (80Big blinds).

      But when I've seen my elephant hands I found I didn't get anything higher than AKo in 140 hands.

      AKs has a 1:331 odds
      77->AA had 1:220 odds each.

      So 331/332*(220/221)^8 = 0.965.
      Odds that I do not recibe a hand in this range are 3.5%.

      Now 0.965^140=0.0074 = 0.74%.

      So I wasn't as bad player as I thought. I just was getting some bad cards (I can't statistically prove it, may be I recibed 140 AKo :f_cool: .

      The point is, first of all, that situation could be worse than a 1% bad beat to a player. Second, anybody knows something similar to a "luck analysis historial software".

      Thanks in advance, and good luck ;)
  • 7 replies
    • Termi8r
      Termi8r
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      [ ] sample size

      There are 169 combinations of hands as far I know, so you could be lucky that actually got one of the top ones.

      I'm not a FL player but sometimes you end up losing a lot with the big starting hands anyway. I'll go and have a look at how you played those hands that cost you so much and post them on the forum to see if you are making any mistakes post flop.

      Cheers
      Termi8r
    • Zheelvern
      Zheelvern
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.10.2007 Posts: 704
      [ ] luck factor
      [x] fuck lactor


      :f_eek:
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Your trying to use math to show that you should have gotten a hand???

      1. Math is idiotic
      2. Math is idiotic
      3. MATH IS IDIOTIC

      There we go.. all better now :)

      P.S I am not flaming you, just wanted to put some humor since what you described happens to everyone all the time because poker hands are random and just because a certain hand should come xxx times in xxx hands does not mean it really has to come over a small sample size. Even in 1,000,000,000,000(insert as many 0s as you want) it will still not be precisely as math described it, just close to it.
    • Eco024
      Eco024
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 282
      Hi,
      Thanks for the answers (even the "math is idiotic one"). Let my explain, I'm not sayng "oooh, poor me, I'm an unlucky guy..." who cares. I'm not telling "this room is rigged" or "the devil is behing that bad luck".

      I'm already posting hands and so on, just want to know if there exists a tool able to calculate anything like luck factor (and not based only on starting hands). I'm just asking for a tool to improve my game, if someone knows it, I'll apreciate.

      Thanks and good luck.
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Hi Eco024,

      Luck is random! The reason we use calculations for pot odds and drawing odds is to estimate profitabilty in the long run, which means over thousands and thousands of hands not just a couple of hundred hands. Be patient and you will receive some "luck".

      Regards,
      Sarah
    • bah22
      bah22
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 28.01.2008 Posts: 4,207
      I have seen "Luck factor" on one of the re-players! It is popopop's replayer! When you click on stats, you can see your "luck factor" compared to your hole cards!
    • Eco024
      Eco024
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2009 Posts: 282
      Ok, that was just what I was looking for. Works for FL also? Thank you bah!