[NL20-NL50] Nl25 SH JJ

    • koaesica
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 1,066
      Known players:

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with J:diamond: , J:spade:
      MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0,25, CO folds, Hero raises to $1,25, SB calls $1,15, BB folds, MP3 calls $1,00.

      Flop: ($4,00) 6:club: , 6:spade: , T:diamond: (3 players)
      SB checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets $2,00, SB folds, MP3 raises to $4,00, Hero calls $2,00.

      Turn: ($12,00) 6:heart: (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $5,50, MP3 raises to $11,00, Hero raises to $19,91 (All-In), MP3 calls $8,91.

      River: ($51,82) 9:spade: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $51,82

      What am I really beating at the flop? A ten or a bluff? Is calling his minreraise the way to go?

      And the turn?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      We're not giving credit to this guy for limp/calling QQ+ 3-way preflop to begin with, and since there are no real draws out there, he is representing only Tx, 6x or air (possibly 2 overcards). 6x isn't very likely, Tx fits better but would he really raise the flop with top pair ? Maybe given his stats. Unless you know that that guy can't fold top pair ever tho, i would also just call the flop to allow him to make a mistake with his air and see what he does on the turn.

      The turn makes it even less likely he has 6x, that leaves us with Tx or air. If he has air it looks like he may not be willing to follow through with his bluff, so betting to get a call from Tx now that everybody has a full house is the way to go. I'd go a little bigger than halfpot just to make sure our bet doesn't scream weakness and induce something weird, unless you want to do that and call it off, which is way better against some erratic opponents.

      When he c/mr again, this is the breaking point. You can either side with basic reads and maths, meaning you have a good full house likely to be best unless he has the very unlikely 6x, TT and QQ+. Or you can side with the psychology aspect, and wonder why some guy with respectable stats would simply go nuts with a double c/mr on such a dry board if he couldn't beat Tx. He could however figure that now his Tx kicker doesn't play anymore, and just ship his money in without realizing that he's shoving for a chop at best. The real question is whether he would c/mr the flop with a top pair to begin with.

      Personally i go broke in those spots almost always, because getting stacked by the unlikely 6x,TT,QQ+ is less of a mistake than folding to Tx. Here villain has a slightly high WTSD and seem aggressive, so all the more reasons not to fold to Tx hands.

      Hope it helps.