[NL20-NL50] Aces by the river

    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand$0.1/$0.2 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3(Hero):
      $20.48
      CO:
      $3.40
      BU:
      $17.81
      SB:
      $20.16
      BB:
      $12.63

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A.
      Hero raises to $0.8, CO folds, BU calls $0.80, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.90)
      3, J, 4 (2 players) Hero bets $1.20, BU calls $1.20.

      Turn: ($4.30)
      J (2 players) Hero bets $3.00, BU calls $3.00.

      River: ($10.30)
      2 (2 players) Hero bets $4.00, BU raises to $12.81, Hero folds, BU gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $14.30.

      He was 69/3/0.6 over 60 hands. Can I still valuebet river ? After I get raised easy fold ?
  • 4 replies
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      vs such a passive guy, I think you can fold that. Of course you can't say much over 60 hands. I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up with QQ - AA there. Players who have very low PFR very often slowpla premium hands pre-flop.

      I think you could inf a c/f on that river. You only get value from QQ - KK. There area gazillion J's in his range, due to his huge VPIP. The only hands we could hope for him to show up are 55 - TT, but these constitute the smallest part of his range. Also, due to his small AF, you can expect him to check these hands behind on the river. If you check river and he bets, I think he often has a J, a straight, a set or QQ - KK. QQ-KK are a small part of his range though. I say, c/c a small bet (i.e. <1/3 PS) or c/f a biger bet.

      If his VPIP wasn't so huge, it'd be easier to go to the showdown because the amount of J's he could have would a lot smaller. But with a 63 VPIP, he could pretty much have any J, which sucks for us =/
    • BogdanDin7
      BogdanDin7
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      I was thinking a guy like that would also call with 4x and 3x there hence the value bet. Can`t say it was the right decision tho .
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Yeah, maybe a smallish bet could get value from all PP as well. But definitely fold to a raise
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I like your line, especially if his WTSD is somewhat high.

      The alternative would be to check it to him without really knowing what he would do himself, he seems passive but you never know what those guy could end up doing if you check to them when they have air. But he doesn't have that much air in that spot i think, 65/A5 got there, A2 has a little something too now, so i don't see him bluffing with much and he will probably check behind with anything that has showdown value. I guess c/f is viable, but it hurts so much that you're probably better off blockbet/folding if only to feel better about your fold.


      Hope it helps.