[NL2-NL10] NL100 K9s - freeplay - fd and pair on Turn

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $20.00
      UTG1:
      $233.47
      MP1:
      $100.00
      CO:
      $100.00

      0.5/1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:spade: , 9:spade: . CO posts a blind of $1.00.
      UTG folds, UTG1 calls $1.00, UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $1.00, 2 folds, CO checks, 2 folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($4.50) Q:spade: , J:heart: , 8:spade: (4 players)
      Hero checks, UTG1 checks, MP1 checks, CO checks.

      Turn: ($4.50) 9:heart: (4 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, UTG1 folds, MP1 calls $3.00, CO folds.

      River: ($10.50) 7:club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP1 bets $7.00, Hero calls $7.00.

      Final Pot: $24.50
  • 3 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hey Tim64,

      in 4-way pot 3rd pair is by far not enough to be aggressive, so I would just play my draw according to outs and odds and remain passive.

      As played, I'm check/folding river. What do you think you beat here? I can only come up with a pure bluff, but that's not very likely imo.

      Regards,
      burek2000
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,401
      The thinking behind the call is: what hands that beat me wouldn't have raised the flop - or 3bet the Turn - to protect against draws?

      Clearly any T has me crushed, but what other hands beat me that wouldn't have tried to protect? Isn't villain sometimes on a busted draw himself, here? Even if Villain has a Ten, wouldn't he be expected to raise the Turn with a :heart: and :spade: draw out there?

      So, a flat call on the Turn might indicate: a nervous and badly played pair, a draw, or a low/medium pocket pair that doesn't believe anyone else has anything. I'm definitely beating some of these hands on the River and my odds for the call are pretty good.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      On the river you have to be ahead 30% of the time to justify the call and that's quite a lot imo if all you beat is a bluff. Opponent can of course raise a busted FD, but I find too many hands that have you beat here. He could also be on 2-pair, straight or a misplayed set which all have you beat. So, unless I would have any more reads/stats, I prefer to give up the hand on the river, I can hardly imagine unknown opponent to bluff 30% of the time.

      As for what opponent should raise on the turn, he probably should raise the hands that have you beat, but he could also be a calling station or just a bad player, so I wouldn't presume too much against unknown.