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[NL20-NL50] nl50 sh AA

    • BloodyB
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,113
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($4.25) K, J, 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.00, CO raises to $7.5, Hero raises to $19, CO calls $11.50.

      Turn: ($42.25) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $30.00, CO raises to $51.6, Hero calls $21.60.

      Final Pot: $145.45.

      V: 17/17/inf/33 63h
  • 3 replies
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      He has a set for sure but what to do, he has INF AF but only 63 hands so I still assume set. Inf AF just means he's not calling only raising doesn't mean he doesn't fold. You got reads what he goes to SD with?

      Call Flop and Fold to turn action in case he's trying to move you off your hand with FD or something? Feels a bit like burning money though calling flop and folding turn.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      This sucks. Your opponent seems so straightforward i don't believe he would even flat KJs preflop. KK/JJ he would probably raise, same with AK unless he's scared of deep stack play or something. Even then i don't see him ever raising TPTK for value here, so we're basically looking at exactly 44, or a flushdraw.

      I don't think his raise size tells us anything and it's going to get messy, so i'll try and explain how i think he'll play his hands before deciding what to do.

      - If he indeed has 44, he will be looking to get it in as soon as possible no matter what we do, so if we 3bet we get 4bet, if we call the flop and bet the turn he will shove, if we call the flop and check the turn he will bet again. We want to keep the pot small against this hand.

      - If he has a flushdraw and we 3bet the flop, i expect him to peel a 3bet on the flop given the stacks, i don't think he will go nuts and shove over for 150bb given the strength we'd show by 3betting here. When a club comes on the turn we're fucked, and when a blank comes, we're either forced to bet/call into a set to protect from the times he has a flushdraw, or check in the dark with no idea what to do if he bets, one big guess for 100bb.

      - If he has a flushdraw and we just call the flop, we have a lot of more maneuverability. If we check a blank turn, he may or may not fire again, i believe most tags would expect us to be c/calling again here so checking behind would be my guess on his part. Although if he is good enough to realize the pressure that bet would put on you, he will bet again. If we donk a blank turn into him, he probably won't shove over either, most likely he'll either call again thinking he has implieds or he will just give up. I'm leaning towards him giving up because the pot would get scary big, but who knows. Obviously he will bet again himself or shove over our donk on a club turn and get it in no matter what.

      All considered, i don't like 3betting the flop here, decisions are all too dicey out of position on blank turns with the inflated pot, which is were we will end up most of the time given that most tags won't fold a flushdraw to a 3bet on the flop with these stacks. I'd much rather call and see a turn to keep the pot manageable until i see my equity on the turn.

      From there, a club turn is a check/fold. It's still going to be somewhat cheap to c/c if you think he might bluff there but i don't think he would.

      On a blank turn, i don't really like donking, i think you have reasons for c/f and c/c, you're gonna have to compromise no matter what you choose. c/f if you don't think he would bet a flushdraw again on the turn. c/c if you think he's good enough to fire again with a draw to put all your stack at risk here. I'd probably c/c because i tend not to believe people way too often in these spots and often leak money this way. But then again i don't think a c/f is too weak at these stakes, people just don't bluff often enough and with his smallish flop raise that guy doesn't strike me as the type to fire again on the turn without a set.

      If we get to a club river we're check/folding no matter what. If we get to a blank river we're also checking, and what happens if he bets is going to be highly questionable. He either :

      - raised the flop, checked behind the turn and then fired at the river. Now that doesn't really make much sense to me with a set, and it's an awful spot to bluff also, still i'd look him up here.

      - raised the flop, fired again on the turn, and then shoved the river. That takes a lot of heart with a flush draw, i think i would fold and give him this one for a ~90bb shove, even tho a flushdraw is more likely than a set from the math perspective. I wouldn't quarrel with anyone willing to call here, but then again (same old argument) i don't think you'll see many tags willing to go that far with a draw at these stakes.

      All of this is speculation and different people will have different views on this hand depending on the assumptions they make on your opponent. I hope it helps somehow anyway, because this is scary long :D
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      at least it was reasonable to me.
      I´d also play b/c flop; c/c turn and likely c/f river
      and on that stack sizes he´d likely would coldcall KJs ip.
      Hero should have very good read, that player can make moves on that board and then putting a lot of money in with 150bb deep worse hands/draws than overpair.