[NL2-NL10] NL100 A9s squeeze?

    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
      SB ($53.05)
      Hero ($20)
      UTG ($35.93)
      UTG+1 ($68.50)
      UTG+2 ($106)
      MP1 ($23.60)
      MP2 ($102)
      CO ($98.30)
      BTN ($81.86)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: 9:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $3, BTN calls $3, SB calls $2.50, fold

      CO: 12/6, 13 ats (CO), 46k hands
      BU: 49/19, 73 hands
      SB: 30/2, 321 hands

      Although these callers make it tempting, I think I'm not doing well enough against Co's range, he is pretty tight. What do you think?
  • 6 replies
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      i'm no SSSer (i play 30BB stacks), but i think squeezing coule well be profitable here despite his tight raises. his general tightness means he'll probbaly still fold a lot even with a 13% range, and the two callers make this good enough imo. with just one caller i think it's a fold.

      also, squeezing should look strong here to players who are aware of your stats and CO's stats.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Looks like an incredible profitable spot doesn't it. You only need 40% equity if he calls a 100% range right? Then the Profit only increases the more FE you have.

      I think a push is good, although I haven't bothered to do a calculation to prove it lol.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Well what kind of CO range will you give him? Also what kind of calling range do you give him?

      Furthermore do you think CO knows how he is playing because BU is quite loose and thus a loose steal move from CO isn't really the most profitable play due BU who tends to coldcall loose.

      I did a quick calculation for EV=0 and I see that based on Equity 29.5% (vs AK+,JJ+ callingrange) you have to get your opponent fold 42.5%~

      So when he calls with AQ+,TT+ (= FE lower, Equity fractional bigger) , your EV becomes negative.

      I found it close but only if his calling range is TIGHT, you can do this.

      - Gerv
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      I'd give CO something like 77+, AT+, KJ+, which I think are playable hands even against loose fish.

      And I'd expect him to be calling something like 77+, AQ+, which gives me nearly 50% FE. Is that reasonable?

      Nonetheless I think this is quite hard to estimate, he could call looser because of the odds, and he could be raising tighter because of the loose fish... so, as it is quite marginal, I like the fold so far.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      From my experience , I see those players calling with AT/A9 more than 77/88.

      This is because AK vs AT is 74/26 while AA vs 88 80/20

      Moreover if you face KK-TT with ATo for example, you still have 30% ;)

      I hope this helps so I give him like 99+,AT+ (A9s?)

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Very helpful, thanks a lot.