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[NL2-NL10] NL100 77 3bet

    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $1(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($21)
      BB ($100)
      UTG ($100)
      MP2 ($100)
      MP3 ($135)
      CO ($54.90)
      BTN ($19)

      Dealt to Hero 7:spade: 7:heart:

      fold, fold, MP3 calls $1, fold, BTN raises to $4.50, Hero raises to $21 (AI)

      MP3: 26/12, 339 hands

      Do you think I can give him a wide enough range for a 3bet here?
  • 4 replies
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Well, I definitely like it vs ORLP, but with the limper I'm less sure.

      His stats:
      1. He raises 19% of hands from bu overall (raising more as a steal).
      2. He folds 56% of the time to 3bet.

      But we have to assume a good part of this 56% (over half?) will be folding hands he steals with to re-steals from the blinds, so, if he's not stealing then he's also not folding as often.

      So, he's probably folding no more than 30% of the time in this spot. The other 70% (i.e. 70% of 19%) is the range we're up against, ignoring the caller. So, if our 77's are up against 13%, we have only about 44% equity.

      So, we get: 0.3 (fe) * 7$ + (0.7 * .45 * $21.50) = $2.1 + $6.77 = $8.87

      less (0.7 * 0.55 * $20.5) = $7.89

      Total profit = $0.98

      Which may make this an ok play - although clearly it's marginal. If we factor in the times mp3 calls, I don't know what happens since we're probably behind to the hands he call with.

      I don't know whether my assumptions are realistic, but any comments on the calcs would be +EV... :)
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      He can be Isolating 26/12 MP player loose so I think I like the push. Our image should give us some nice FE and we are only way behind to higher pairs preflop so this isn't a bad hand to get in. Does feel quite loose/marginal though!

      Don't know If I'd actually push this in game or not. Discussing on the Evaluation forum is slightly different to actually playing haha.
    • dandycal
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Yeah, I also felt it was quite marginal.

      1 - $5,5 in the pot increse the profit with FE
      2 - The limper behind adds some dead money for BTN to loosen up and isolate.
      3 - I don't think we should worry about the limper's range, because his 12% pfr means that he'd be raising the better hands there.

      By Tim's calculations we get a slight positive Ev, but I suspect it's enough, especially considering this guy could be isolating with a wider range.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      f23bet% is a mean number -> You need fold 2 3bet based per position as you see their PFR/Raise 1st per position as well

      But given the fact that BU is 19% ánd he can probably isolate with a looser range than displayed (Iso range is wider than normal imo), I think 77 gives you enough equity + your shove gives you sufficient FE

      - Gerv