[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH KQo

    • LuborC
      LuborC
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2008 Posts: 1,243
      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      UTG ($3.50)
      Hero (MP) ($9.34)
      Button ($12.65)
      SB ($10.40)
      BB ($13.50)

      Preflop: Hero is MP with K, Q
      UTG calls $0.10, Hero bets $0.50, Button calls $0.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($1.25) 3, K, 2 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, Button calls $0.80

      Turn: ($2.85) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, Button bets $1.70, Hero calls $1.70

      River: ($6.25) 10 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2, Button calls $2

      Total pot: $10.25 | Rake: $0.68
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      If you have some reads please share them. If you don't and he is an unknown, i don't like your line on the turn.


      When he calls the flop he probably has

      - flushdraws.

      - some random pocket pairs 44-QQ he floated with.

      - the unlikely sets.

      - Kx.


      On the turn when you check, he

      - will bet with a flushdraw, calling is -EV for you.

      - may or may not turn 44-QQ into a bluff by betting, and will probably check behind ~half those hands because he'll have a diamond to go with them. You miss value from those without any guaranty that he will "bluff" to compensate.

      - will bet a set, calling is -EV for you.

      - will check behind worse Kx, you miss value from those, especially when his kicker is a diamond.


      Let's reverse that and see what he does when you bet the turn, he

      - will call or raise with a flushdraw, if he raises you can fold easily, if he just calls you end up in the same situation as if you had check/called, except you got to choose the bet size this time.

      - will call again or fold 44-QQ, especially call if he has a diamond to go with it, you get value that you didn't get when check/calling.

      - will call or raise with a set, if he raises you can fold easily, if he just calls you end up in the same situation as if you had check/called, except you got to choose the bet size this time.

      - may or may not call again with Kx depending on how scared of the flush he is and if he has a diamond kicker, in any case you get value that you didn't get when check/calling.


      Bottom line is, barring a read that he will float your c-bet and then bet with worse hands when you check the turn VERY often, we call those situations negative freerolls : if you check, the only hands that will bet are those that beat you, which means calling is always going to be a mistake. Don't make the mistake of being scared of the flush to the point where you miss value from worse hands while still getting owned by better hands anyway, this is a huge problem. Prefer bet/folding against an unknown in that spot, always.


      I hope the break down was useful, if you didn't understand something bump the thread with your questions.