[NL20-NL50] 23 nl25 sh

    • Macias09
      Joined: 17.06.2008 Posts: 1,821
      Known players:

      0,1/0,25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.62 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 3:club: , 2:club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0,75, SB folds, BB calls $0,50.

      Flop: ($1,60) 3:diamond: , 2:heart: , 7:club: (2 players)
      BB bets $1,25, Hero calls $1,25.

      Turn: ($4,10) 6:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $3,50, Hero calls $3,50.

      River: ($11,10) 8:spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $8,00, Hero calls $8,00.

      Final Pot: $27,10
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      As usual this is somewhat hard without history in a steal situation. He doesn't fold his BB that often to a steal, he probably has many whiffed broadways and some overpairs, together with the unlikely sets and straight draws. Some 3bet% stats would help to clarify exactly what he does with medium pairs and AQ like hands.

      Overall a weird guy with a very high WTSD, i don't think he's ever folding an overpair or 7x here and he might also do that with some draws, so i would raise the flop planning to go with it, as 22/33/77 are very unlikely. We're cutting off his bluffs if he is indeed bluffing with overs, but without having seen him bluff before we can't really expect him to fire away for 3 streets with total air here.

      As played if you decide to take a passive line you have to call again on any turn. The river is close, almost every hand that had either a top pair or a straight draw is now ahead of you too and some other pairs also improved to sets, i think i would still call down on the offchance he's still bluffing or still has an overpair like 99, but i wouldn't be happy about it.

      Hope it helps.